Who will win Birmingham vs Wolves?

Our model makes Wolves the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.

Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Wolves?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Birmingham vs Wolves?

Birmingham's reported absences and doubts include P. Roberts, D. Gray, S. Wright, J. E. Solis Romero and 5 others. Wolves's include L. Krejci, S. Johnstone, R. Said, J. Bellegarde and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Birmingham vs Wolves?

Birmingham line up in a 4-2-3-1, Wolves in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

BirminghamvWolves

Sun 6 Sep · 11:00 UTC

2 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Wolves40% · Match result
Over 1.573% · Goals
Yes52% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Wolves the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Wolves a 41% chance. Our model makes it 40%.

WolvesModel 40% [32%–48%]Market 41%

2Market

Open: 32% home · 29% draw · 39% away

Now: 31% home · 29% draw · 41% away

Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Wolves

Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home31%vs31%0pp

Draw29%vs29%0pp

Away40%vs41%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs48%

Under 2.5—vs52%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.573%vs73%0pp

Under 1.527%vs27%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs27%

Under 3.5—vs73%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs54%−2pp

No48%vs46%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Birmingham

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

P. Roberts — out (Health problems)
D. Gray — out (Injury)
S. Wright — out (Off the roster)
J. E. Solis Romero — out (Inactive)
L. Buchanan — out (Knee Injury)
M. Bird — out (Inactive)
M. Leonard — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
T. Gardner-Hickman — out (Injury)
M. Ducksch — out (Calf Injury)

Wolves

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

L. Krejci — out (Calf Injury)
S. Johnstone — out (Shoulder Injury)
R. Said — out (Knee Injury)
J. Bellegarde — out (Hamstring Injury)
R. Jimenez — out (Knee Injury)
S. Bueno — out (Inactive)
S. Neave — doubtful (Injury)
K. Trippier — out (Knee Injury)
Y. Mosquera — out (Ankle Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

BirminghamDWDD

Tue 1 Sep · H v Southampton 1–1
Fri 28 Aug · A v Wrexham 2–1(xG 1.6–1.4)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Bristol City 2–2
Sat 15 Aug · A v Sheffield Utd 0–0

WolvesLWWDD

Tue 1 Sep · A v West Ham 2–4
Sat 29 Aug · H v Stoke City 4–1(xG 2.6–0.9)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Preston 3–1
Fri 14 Aug · H v Blackburn 2–2
Sun 24 May · A v Burnley 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Birmingham

Birmingham have won 1 of their last 4.
Birmingham have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of Birmingham's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Birmingham's last 4.
Birmingham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

Wolves

Wolves have won 2 of their last 5.
Wolves have scored in 5 of their last 5.
4 of Wolves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 5 of Wolves's last 5.
Wolves kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Birmingham

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Wolves

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham · Referee: Adam Herczeg, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.

Common questions

Who will win Birmingham vs Wolves?: Our model makes Wolves the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Wolves?: Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Birmingham vs Wolves?: Birmingham's reported absences and doubts include P. Roberts, D. Gray, S. Wright, J. E. Solis Romero and 5 others. Wolves's include L. Krejci, S. Johnstone, R. Said, J. Bellegarde and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Birmingham vs Wolves?: Birmingham line up in a 4-2-3-1, Wolves in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.