Championship · Regular Season - 7
BoltonvCardiff
Bolton
Cardiff·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.7–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Bolton and Cardiff finish on some other score 62% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Bol / Car | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Bolton down the side and Cardiff across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 40%.
What we think
- Bolton58% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Bolton
Best price 2.62 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 58% against a market price of 37% — 21 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 13 players reported unavailable — 6 for Bolton, 7 for Cardiff.
- Bolton and Cardiff have played four or more matches in the past fortnight.
Our forecast makes Bolton the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Cardiff the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 62% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Cardiff a 37% chance. Our model makes it 17%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 26% draw · 35% away
Now: 37% home · 26% draw · 37% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Bolton
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bolton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Stephenson — out (Injury)
- C. Forino-Joseph — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Brunt — out (Injury)
- J. Sheehan — out (Red Card)
- X. Simons — out (Red Card)
- R. Rodrigues — out (Knee Injury)
Cardiff
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Colwill — out (Health problems)
- I. Davies — out (Injury)
- K. Bielik — doubtful (Inactive)
- G. Osho — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Chambers — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Lawlor — out (Muscle Injury)
- W. Fish — out (Hernia)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BoltonLLLLD
- Tue 8 Sep · H v West Ham 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Millwall 0–4
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lincoln 0–1(xG 1.5–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v QPR 0–0
CardiffDLLDD
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Stoke City 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Portsmouth 0–2
- Wed 2 Sep · A v QPR 1–2(xG 0.6–2.1)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 2–2(xG 2.3–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Derby 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bolton have won 0 of their last 5.
- Bolton have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Bolton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Bolton's last 5.
- Bolton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Cardiff have won 0 of their last 5.
- Cardiff have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Cardiff's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cardiff's last 5.
- Cardiff kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Bolton
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Cardiff
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton · Referee: Thomas Parsons, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Bolton vs Cardiff?
- Our model makes Bolton the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market instead favours Cardiff at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Bolton vs Cardiff?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Bolton vs Cardiff?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bolton vs Cardiff?
- Bolton's reported absences and doubts include L. Stephenson, C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt, J. Sheehan and 2 others. Cardiff's include R. Colwill, I. Davies, K. Bielik, G. Osho and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bolton vs Cardiff?
- Bolton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Cardiff in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.