Championship · Regular Season - 6
BoltonvWest Ham
Bolton
West Ham·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- West Ham44% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes West Ham the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 23% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 61%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives West Ham a 61% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 18% home · 22% draw · 60% away
Now: 17% home · 22% draw · 61% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards West Ham
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bolton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Stephenson — out (Injury)
- C. Forino-Joseph — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Brunt — out (Injury)
- J. Sheehan — out (Red Card)
- X. Simons — out (Red Card)
- R. Rodrigues — out (Knee Injury)
West Ham
Confirmed · 4-4-1-1
- J. Veltman — out (Injury)
- T. Castellanos — out (Injury)
- A. Areola — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Soucek — out (Ankle Injury)
- Pablo — out (Health problems)
- K. Mavropanos — out (Inactive)
- K. Lamadrid — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BoltonLLLDW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Millwall 0–4
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lincoln 0–1(xG 1.5–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v QPR 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Preston 2–1
West HamWWDLD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Derby 3–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Wolves 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Watford 1–1(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Charlton 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Burnley 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bolton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Bolton have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Bolton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Bolton's last 5.
- Bolton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- West Ham have won 2 of their last 5.
- West Ham have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of West Ham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of West Ham's last 5.
- West Ham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Bolton
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
West Ham
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton · Referee: David Webb, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Bolton vs West Ham?
- Our model makes West Ham the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 61%.
- Will both teams score in Bolton vs West Ham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bolton vs West Ham?
- Bolton's reported absences and doubts include L. Stephenson, C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt, J. Sheehan and 2 others. West Ham's include J. Veltman, T. Castellanos, A. Areola, T. Soucek and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bolton vs West Ham?
- Bolton line up in a 4-2-3-1, West Ham in a 4-4-1-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.