Championship · Regular Season - 6
BlackburnvSheffield Utd
Blackburn
Sheffield Utd·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Blackburn36% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Blackburn the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Sheffield Utd the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Sheffield Utd a 41% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 27% draw · 42% away
Now: 31% home · 27% draw · 41% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Sheffield Utd
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Blackburn
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Jorgensen — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Ribeiro — out (Injury)
- A. Forshaw — out (Injury)
- S. Wharton — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- H. Pickering — out (Inactive)
- M. Litherland — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Atcheson — out (Red Card)
- Y. Ohashi — out (Inactive)
- L. Miller — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Kargbo — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. De Neve — out (Injury)
- M. Baradji — out (Hamstring Injury)
Sheffield Utd
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Seriki — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Burrows — out (Injury)
- S. McCallum — doubtful (Inactive)
- R. One — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Chong — out (Injury)
- J. Shackleton — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Phillips — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BlackburnLDLWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Preston 1–2
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Lincoln 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v QPR 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Middlesbrough 2–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Wolves 2–2
Sheffield UtdLWDDD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Norwich 1–3
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Bolton 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cardiff 2–2(xG 1.5–2.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Swansea 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Birmingham 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Blackburn have won 1 of their last 5.
- Blackburn have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Blackburn's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Blackburn's last 5.
- Blackburn kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sheffield Utd have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sheffield Utd have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sheffield Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sheffield Utd's last 5.
- Sheffield Utd kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Blackburn
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Sheffield Utd
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Ewood Park, Blackburn · Referee: Matt Donohue, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd?
- Our model makes Blackburn the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market instead favours Sheffield Utd at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd?
- Blackburn's reported absences and doubts include M. Jorgensen, Y. Ribeiro, A. Forshaw, S. Wharton and 8 others. Sheffield Utd's include F. Seriki, H. Burrows, S. McCallum, R. One and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd?
- Blackburn line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sheffield Utd in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.