Championship · Regular Season - 6
CardiffvStoke City
Cardiff
Stoke City·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Cardiff37% · Match result
- Over 1.573% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cardiff the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Cardiff a 47% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 25% draw · 31% away
Now: 47% home · 25% draw · 28% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Stoke City
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cardiff
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Colwill — out (Health problems)
- I. Davies — out (Injury)
- K. Bielik — doubtful (Inactive)
- G. Osho — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Chambers — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Lawlor — out (Muscle Injury)
- W. Fish — out (Hernia)
Stoke City
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- B. Lawal — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Cresswell — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Gallagher — out (Injury)
- J. Tchamadeu — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Ampah — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Ingelsson — out (Injury)
- B. Gibson — out (Head Injury)
- L. Cisse — out (Knock)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CardiffLLDDD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Portsmouth 0–2
- Wed 2 Sep · A v QPR 1–2(xG 0.6–2.1)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 2–2(xG 2.3–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Derby 2–2
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Wrexham 1–1
Stoke CityWWLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Charlton 4–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Norwich 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Wolves 1–4(xG 0.9–2.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Southampton 1–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Swansea 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cardiff have won 0 of their last 5.
- Cardiff have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Cardiff's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cardiff's last 5.
- Cardiff kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Stoke City have won 2 of their last 5.
- Stoke City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Stoke City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Stoke City's last 5.
- Stoke City kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Cardiff
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Stoke City
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff · Referee: Sam Allison, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Our model makes Cardiff the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Cardiff's reported absences and doubts include R. Colwill, I. Davies, K. Bielik, G. Osho and 3 others. Stoke City's include B. Lawal, A. Cresswell, S. Gallagher, J. Tchamadeu and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Cardiff line up in a 4-2-3-1, Stoke City in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.