Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5
UtrechtvGO Ahead Eagles
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles·
1 – 3 (0')
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Utrecht and GO Ahead Eagles finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Utr / GO | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Utrecht down the side and GO Ahead Eagles across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Utrecht57% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Utrecht
Best price 2.19 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 57% against a market price of 44% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 93% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 14 players reported unavailable — 10 for Utrecht, 4 for GO Ahead Eagles.
Our forecast makes Utrecht the most likely of the three results, at 57%. Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Utrecht a 44% chance. Before kick-off our model made it 57%;with the current score at 0′ it is 16%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 25% draw · 29% away
Now: 44% home · 25% draw · 31% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Utrecht
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Utrecht
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- M. Broholm — out (Inactive)
- J. van Overeem — doubtful (Inactive)
- J. van Ommeren — out (Back Injury)
- N. Vesterlund — out (Injury)
- K. Paredes — out (Inactive)
- N. Ohio — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Jonathans — out (Knee Injury)
- V. Jensen — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Engwanda — out (Hamstring Injury)
- O. Agougil — out (Injury)
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- G. van Zwam — doubtful (Inactive)
- R. Weijenberg — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Saathof — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Nauber — out (Broken Leg)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
UtrechtLDLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–6(xG 0.3–3.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sparta Rotterdam 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v AZ Alkmaar 1–4
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Groningen 1–2
GO Ahead EaglesLWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v AZ Alkmaar 2–5(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 3–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Feyenoord 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Willem II 4–1
5Trends
How each side has been going, and how these two have met — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter.
- Utrecht have won 0 of their last 4.
- Utrecht have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of Utrecht's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Utrecht's last 4.
- Utrecht kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- GO Ahead Eagles have won 2 of their last 4.
- GO Ahead Eagles have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of GO Ahead Eagles's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of GO Ahead Eagles's last 4.
- GO Ahead Eagles kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Utrecht
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht · Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Utrecht vs GO Ahead Eagles?
- Our model makes Utrecht the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Utrecht vs GO Ahead Eagles?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.