Eredivisie · Regular Season - 3
NEC NijmegenvExcelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- NEC Nijmegen63% · Match result
- Over 1.585% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes NEC Nijmegen the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives NEC Nijmegen a 60% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 62% home · 21% draw · 16% away
Now: 60% home · 22% draw · 19% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from NEC Nijmegen
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Mor — out (Injury)
- D. Fonville — out (Ankle Injury)
- G. Crettaz — out (Injury)
- C. Bischoff — out (Injury)
- D. Nejasmic — out (Inactive)
- B. Linssen — out (Injury)
- P. Sandler — out (Injury)
- A. Kaplan — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Ouaissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Schuurs — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Ogawa — out (Head Injury)
- Y. Moslih — out (Injury)
Excelsior
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- N. Naujoks — out (Inactive)
- K. Bos — out (Shoulder Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NEC NijmegenLWWL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Feyenoord 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v PEC Zwolle 3–1(xG 1.9–2.0)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Willem II 4–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Telstar 1–2
ExcelsiorWWLW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Willem II 3–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 2–1(xG 1.3–1.0)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–2
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Cambuur 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- NEC Nijmegen have won 2 of their last 4.
- NEC Nijmegen have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of NEC Nijmegen's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of NEC Nijmegen's last 4.
- NEC Nijmegen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Excelsior have won 3 of their last 4.
- Excelsior have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of Excelsior's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Excelsior's last 4.
- Excelsior kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
NEC Nijmegen
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Excelsior
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · Referee: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- Our model makes NEC Nijmegen the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- NEC Nijmegen's reported absences and doubts include E. Mor, D. Fonville, G. Crettaz, C. Bischoff and 8 others. Excelsior's include N. Naujoks, K. Bos. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- NEC Nijmegen line up in a 3-4-2-1, Excelsior in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.