Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5
Willem IIvExcelsior
Willem II
Excelsior·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Excelsior43% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Excelsior the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Excelsior a 41% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 26% draw · 41% away
Now: 33% home · 26% draw · 41% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Willem II
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- V. van Crooij — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Hoogma — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Boogaard — out (Knock)
- T. Vilhena — out (Inactive)
- L. Abildgaard — out (Inactive)
- T. Didillon Hodl — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. ter Avest — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Zarrouk — out (Surgery)
- J. Schuurman — out (Knock)
- A. Lachkar — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Culum — out (Foot Injury)
Excelsior
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- N. Naujoks — out (Inactive)
- K. Bos — out (Shoulder Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Willem IIDLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Heerenveen 2–2(xG 1.7–1.4)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–4
ExcelsiorWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 2–1(xG 1.3–1.0)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–2
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Cambuur 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Willem II have won 0 of their last 3.
- Willem II have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of Willem II's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Willem II's last 3.
- Willem II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Excelsior have won 2 of their last 3.
- Excelsior have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of Excelsior's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Excelsior's last 3.
- Excelsior kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Willem II
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Excelsior
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg · Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Willem II vs Excelsior?
- Our model makes Excelsior the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Willem II vs Excelsior?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Willem II vs Excelsior?
- Willem II's reported absences and doubts include V. van Crooij, J. Hoogma, K. Boogaard, T. Vilhena and 7 others. Excelsior's include N. Naujoks, K. Bos. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Willem II vs Excelsior?
- Willem II line up in a 4-2-3-1, Excelsior in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.