Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5

AjaxvPSV Eindhoven

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1 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • PSV Eindhoven41% · Match result
  • Over 1.584% · Goals
  • Yes62% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes PSV Eindhoven the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives PSV Eindhoven a 40% chance. Our model makes it 41%.

PSV EindhovenModel 41% [29%–55%]Market 40%
PSV Eindhoven:, our forecast 41%, between 29% and 55%, market 40%

2Market

Open: 36% home · 23% draw · 40% away

Now: 36% home · 24% draw · 40% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home36%vs36%0pp
Draw23%vs24%−1pp
Away41%vs40%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs74%
Under 2.5—vs26%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.584%vs91%−7pp
Under 1.516%vs9%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs53%
Under 3.5—vs47%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes62%vs74%−12pp
No38%vs26%+12pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Ajax

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • D. Blind — out (Injury)
  • A. Bouwman — out (Injury)
  • R. van de Pavert — doubtful (Inactive)
  • S. Adingra — out (Foot Injury)
  • P. Reverson — out (Injury)
  • Y. Regeer — out (Injury)
  • M. Carrizo — out (Inactive)
  • A. van Axel Dongen — out (Thigh Injury)
  • J. Sutalo — out (Injury)
  • A. Kaplan — out (Knee Injury)
  • J. Faberski — out (Knee Injury)
  • R. Bounida — out (Injury)

PSV Eindhoven

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • A. Nagalo — out (Injury)
  • S. Lammers — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • K. Sildillia — out (Injury)
  • D. Man — out (Inactive)
  • M. Bro Hansen — out (Injury)
  • R. van Bommel — doubtful (Injury)
  • S. Ouaissa — out (Muscle Injury)
  • A. Plea — out (Injury)
  • J. Veerman — out (Red Card)
  • J. Schouten — out (Knee Injury)
  • C. Driouech — out (Knock)
  • S. Dest — out (Yellow Cards)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AjaxWDW

  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Telstar 4–0(xG 2.1–1.1)
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Heerenveen 2–2
  • Sun 9 Aug · A v PEC Zwolle 2–0

PSV EindhovenWWWD

  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Utrecht 6–1(xG 3.0–0.3)
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Groningen 5–1
  • Sat 15 Aug · A v Excelsior 2–1
  • Sat 8 Aug · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Ajax
  • Ajax have won 2 of their last 3.
  • Ajax have scored in 3 of their last 3.
  • 2 of Ajax's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Ajax's last 3.
  • Ajax kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
PSV Eindhoven
  • PSV Eindhoven have won 3 of their last 4.
  • PSV Eindhoven have scored in 4 of their last 4.
  • 4 of PSV Eindhoven's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of PSV Eindhoven's last 4.
  • PSV Eindhoven kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Ajax

Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d

PSV Eindhoven

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · Referee: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model makes PSV Eindhoven the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance, against 38% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ajax's reported absences and doubts include D. Blind, A. Bouwman, R. van de Pavert, S. Adingra and 8 others. PSV Eindhoven's include A. Nagalo, S. Lammers, K. Sildillia, D. Man and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ajax line up in a 4-3-3, PSV Eindhoven in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.