Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5

NEC NijmegenvFeyenoord

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1 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Feyenoord41% · Match result
  • Over 1.582% · Goals
  • Yes60% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Feyenoord the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Feyenoord a 43% chance. Our model makes it 41%.

FeyenoordModel 41% [30%–53%]Market 43%
Feyenoord:, our forecast 41%, between 30% and 53%, market 43%

2Market

Open: 33% home · 23% draw · 44% away

Now: 33% home · 24% draw · 43% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home35%vs33%+2pp
Draw24%vs24%0pp
Away41%vs43%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs68%
Under 2.5—vs32%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.582%vs89%−7pp
Under 1.518%vs11%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs47%
Under 3.5—vs53%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes60%vs70%−10pp
No40%vs30%+10pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

NEC Nijmegen

Confirmed · 3-4-1-2

  • E. Mor — out (Injury)
  • D. Fonville — out (Ankle Injury)
  • G. Crettaz — out (Injury)
  • C. Bischoff — out (Injury)
  • D. Nejasmic — out (Inactive)
  • B. Linssen — out (Injury)
  • P. Sandler — out (Injury)
  • A. Kaplan — out (Knee Injury)
  • S. Ouaissa — out (Muscle Injury)
  • P. Schuurs — out (Knee Injury)
  • K. Ogawa — out (Head Injury)
  • Y. Moslih — out (Injury)

Feyenoord

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • G. Borges — out (Knock)
  • R. Nelson — out (Inactive)
  • T. Watanabe — out (Ribs Injury)
  • G. Smal — out (Ankle Injury)
  • B. Nieuwkoop — out (Injury)
  • J. Moder — out (Knee Injury)
  • J. Bos — out (Knee Injury)
  • T. Beelen — out (Broken Leg)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

NEC NijmegenWWL

  • Sat 29 Aug · A v PEC Zwolle 3–1(xG 1.9–2.0)
  • Sat 15 Aug · A v Willem II 4–1
  • Sat 8 Aug · H v Telstar 1–2

FeyenoordDWDW

  • Sun 30 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 2–2(xG 2.5–0.2)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Cambuur 5–2
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v GO Ahead Eagles 2–2
  • Sun 9 Aug · A v Sparta Rotterdam 1–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

NEC Nijmegen
  • NEC Nijmegen have won 2 of their last 3.
  • NEC Nijmegen have scored in 3 of their last 3.
  • 3 of NEC Nijmegen's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of NEC Nijmegen's last 3.
  • NEC Nijmegen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
Feyenoord
  • Feyenoord have won 2 of their last 4.
  • Feyenoord have scored in 4 of their last 4.
  • 3 of Feyenoord's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Feyenoord's last 4.
  • Feyenoord kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

NEC Nijmegen

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Feyenoord

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · Referee: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our model makes Feyenoord the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen's reported absences and doubts include E. Mor, D. Fonville, G. Crettaz, C. Bischoff and 8 others. Feyenoord's include G. Borges, R. Nelson, T. Watanabe, G. Smal and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen line up in a 3-4-1-2, Feyenoord in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.