Who will win Southampton vs Swansea?

Our model makes Southampton the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Swansea?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Southampton vs Swansea?

Southampton's reported absences and doubts include R. Akachukwu, T. Harwood-Bellis, C. Jander. Swansea's include J. Key, B. Cabango, G. Franco, R. Stewart and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Southampton vs Swansea?

Southampton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Swansea in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 6

SouthamptonvSwansea

Tue 8 Sep · 18:45 UTC

3 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Southampton58% · Match result
Over 1.580% · Goals
Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Southampton the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Southampton a 52% chance. Our model makes it 58%.

SouthamptonModel 58% [49%–67%]Market 52%

2Market

Open: 52% home · 25% draw · 24% away

Now: 52% home · 25% draw · 23% away

Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home58%vs52%+6pp

Draw23%vs25%−2pp

Away19%vs23%−4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs54%

Under 2.5—vs46%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs78%+2pp

Under 1.520%vs22%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs32%

Under 3.5—vs68%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs56%0pp

No44%vs44%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Southampton

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

R. Akachukwu — doubtful (Injury)
T. Harwood-Bellis — out (Injury)
C. Jander — out (Lacking Match Fitness)

Swansea

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

J. Key — out (Health problems)
B. Cabango — out (Inactive)
G. Franco — out (Ankle Injury)
R. Stewart — out (Injury)
C. Burgess — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

SouthamptonDDWWL

Sat 5 Sep · A v Lincoln 1–1
Tue 1 Sep · A v Birmingham 1–1
Sat 29 Aug · H v Millwall 5–1(xG 3.2–1.1)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Stoke City 3–1
Sun 16 Aug · A v Watford 1–2

SwanseaDWWDW

Sat 5 Sep · H v Wrexham 0–0
Tue 1 Sep · H v Watford 2–0
Sat 29 Aug · A v Derby 3–0(xG 3.3–0.6)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 0–0
Sat 15 Aug · A v Stoke City 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Southampton

Southampton have won 2 of their last 5.
Southampton have scored in 5 of their last 5.
3 of Southampton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 5 of Southampton's last 5.
Southampton kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

Swansea

Swansea have won 3 of their last 5.
Swansea have scored in 3 of their last 5.
2 of Swansea's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Swansea's last 5.
Swansea kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Southampton

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

Swansea

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire · Referee: Lewis Smith, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.

Common questions

Who will win Southampton vs Swansea?: Our model makes Southampton the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Swansea?: Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Southampton vs Swansea?: Southampton's reported absences and doubts include R. Akachukwu, T. Harwood-Bellis, C. Jander. Swansea's include J. Key, B. Cabango, G. Franco, R. Stewart and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Southampton vs Swansea?: Southampton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Swansea in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.