Who will win Swansea vs Wrexham?

Our model makes Swansea the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.

Will both teams score in Swansea vs Wrexham?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Swansea vs Wrexham?

Swansea's reported absences and doubts include J. Key, B. Cabango, G. Franco, R. Stewart and 1 other. Wrexham's include O. Rathbone, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, B. Sheaf and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Swansea vs Wrexham?

Swansea line up in a 4-3-3, Wrexham in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

SwanseavWrexham

Sat 5 Sep · 19:00 UTC

0 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Swansea42% · Match result
Over 1.577% · Goals
Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Swansea the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Swansea a 44% chance. Our model makes it 42%.

SwanseaModel 42% [35%–49%]Market 44%

2Market

Open: 44% home · 27% draw · 28% away

Now: 44% home · 27% draw · 28% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home42%vs44%−2pp

Draw27%vs27%0pp

Away31%vs28%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs48%

Under 2.5—vs52%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.577%vs74%+3pp

Under 1.523%vs26%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs26%

Under 3.5—vs74%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs54%+2pp

No44%vs46%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Swansea

Confirmed · 4-3-3

J. Key — out (Health problems)
B. Cabango — out (Inactive)
G. Franco — out (Ankle Injury)
R. Stewart — out (Injury)
C. Burgess — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Wrexham

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

O. Rathbone — out (Ankle Injury)
L. Cacace — out (Calf Injury)
M. Cleworth — out (Muscle Injury)
B. Sheaf — out (Inactive)
N. Broadhead — out (Inactive)
S. Revan — out (Hamstring Injury)
G. Thomason — out (Thigh Injury)
J. Windass — out (Calf Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

SwanseaWWDW

Tue 1 Sep · H v Watford 2–0
Sat 29 Aug · A v Derby 3–0(xG 3.3–0.6)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 0–0
Sat 15 Aug · A v Stoke City 2–1

WrexhamWLDD

Wed 2 Sep · A v Millwall 3–0(xG 0.9–0.2)
Fri 28 Aug · H v Birmingham 1–2(xG 1.4–1.6)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Watford 1–1
Mon 17 Aug · A v Cardiff 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Swansea

Swansea have won 3 of their last 4.
Swansea have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of Swansea's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Swansea's last 4.
Swansea kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.

Wrexham

Wrexham have won 1 of their last 4.
Wrexham have scored in 4 of their last 4.
2 of Wrexham's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Wrexham's last 4.
Wrexham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Swansea

Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d

Wrexham

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea · Referee: Elliot Bell, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.

Common questions

Who will win Swansea vs Wrexham?: Our model makes Swansea the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Wrexham?: Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Swansea vs Wrexham?: Swansea's reported absences and doubts include J. Key, B. Cabango, G. Franco, R. Stewart and 1 other. Wrexham's include O. Rathbone, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, B. Sheaf and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Swansea vs Wrexham?: Swansea line up in a 4-3-3, Wrexham in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.