Championship · Regular Season - 6
WrexhamvBurnley
Wrexham
Burnley·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Burnley39% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Burnley the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Wrexham the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 26%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Wrexham a 48% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 26% draw · 27% away
Now: 48% home · 26% draw · 26% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Wrexham
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- O. Rathbone — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Cacace — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Cleworth — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Sheaf — out (Inactive)
- N. Broadhead — out (Inactive)
- S. Revan — out (Hamstring Injury)
- G. Thomason — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Windass — out (Calf Injury)
Burnley
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Ramsey — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Mejbri — out (Inactive)
- J. Bruun Larsen — out (Injury)
- D. Satpaev — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- O. Sonne — doubtful (Inactive)
- Lucas Pires — out (Inactive)
- J. Laurent — out (Red Card)
- B. Humphreys — out (Inactive)
- J. Cullen — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Beyer — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Barnes — out (Injury)
- J. Banel — out (Injury)
- E. Agyei — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
WrexhamDWLDD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Swansea 0–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Millwall 3–0(xG 0.9–0.2)
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Birmingham 1–2(xG 1.4–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Watford 1–1
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Cardiff 1–1
BurnleyLDLLD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bristol City 1–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 1–1(xG 0.6–1.2)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Norwich 1–4(xG 0.9–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v West Brom 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · H v West Ham 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Wrexham have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Wrexham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wrexham's last 5.
- Wrexham kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Burnley have won 0 of their last 5.
- Burnley have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Burnley's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Burnley's last 5.
- Burnley kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Wrexham
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Burnley
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Racecourse Ground, Wrexham · Referee: Tim Robinson, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Our model makes Burnley the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Wrexham at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Wrexham's reported absences and doubts include O. Rathbone, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, B. Sheaf and 4 others. Burnley's include A. Ramsey, H. Mejbri, J. Bruun Larsen, D. Satpaev and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Wrexham line up in a 3-4-2-1, Burnley in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.