Who will win Portsmouth vs Cardiff?

Our model makes Portsmouth the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Cardiff?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Portsmouth vs Cardiff?

Portsmouth's reported absences and doubts include J. Bursik, K. Anderson, Marezi, L. Brooke-Smith and 8 others. Cardiff's include R. Colwill, I. Davies, K. Bielik, G. Osho and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Portsmouth vs Cardiff?

Portsmouth line up in a 4-2-3-1, Cardiff in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 5

PortsmouthvCardiff

Sat 5 Sep · 14:00 UTC

2 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Portsmouth47% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Portsmouth the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Portsmouth a 40% chance. Our model makes it 47%.

PortsmouthModel 47% [40%–56%]Market 40%

2Market

Open: 40% home · 27% draw · 33% away

Now: 40% home · 27% draw · 33% away

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home47%vs40%+7pp

Draw28%vs27%+1pp

Away25%vs33%−8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs55%

Under 2.5—vs45%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs79%−5pp

Under 1.526%vs21%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs32%

Under 3.5—vs68%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs60%−7pp

No47%vs40%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Portsmouth

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

J. Bursik — out (Calf Injury)
K. Anderson — out (Muscle Injury)
Marezi — out (Calf Injury)
L. Brooke-Smith — out (Ankle Injury)
J. Farrell — out (Groin Injury)
J. Murphy — out (Injury)
H. Blair — out (Illness)
T. Waddingham — out (Ankle Injury)
F. Umeh — out (Hamstring Injury)
M. Pack — out (Knee Injury)
C. Ogilvie — out (Knee Injury)
M. Kosznovszky — out (Knee Injury)

Cardiff

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

R. Colwill — out (Health problems)
I. Davies — out (Injury)
K. Bielik — doubtful (Inactive)
G. Osho — out (Knee Injury)
C. Chambers — out (Knee Injury)
D. Lawlor — out (Muscle Injury)
W. Fish — out (Hernia)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

PortsmouthLLWL

Tue 1 Sep · H v Derby 0–2
Sat 29 Aug · A v Bristol City 1–2(xG 1.4–0.6)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Lincoln 3–1
Sat 15 Aug · H v QPR 1–3

CardiffLDDD

Wed 2 Sep · A v QPR 1–2(xG 0.6–2.1)
Sat 29 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 2–2(xG 2.3–1.5)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Derby 2–2
Mon 17 Aug · H v Wrexham 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Portsmouth

Portsmouth have won 1 of their last 4.
Portsmouth have scored in 3 of their last 4.
3 of Portsmouth's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Portsmouth's last 4.
Portsmouth kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

Cardiff

Cardiff have won 0 of their last 4.
Cardiff have scored in 4 of their last 4.
3 of Cardiff's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 4 of Cardiff's last 4.
Cardiff kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Portsmouth

Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d

Cardiff

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

Fratton Park, Portsmouth · Referee: Benjamin Speedie, England

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.

Common questions

Who will win Portsmouth vs Cardiff?: Our model makes Portsmouth the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Cardiff?: Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Portsmouth vs Cardiff?: Portsmouth's reported absences and doubts include J. Bursik, K. Anderson, Marezi, L. Brooke-Smith and 8 others. Cardiff's include R. Colwill, I. Davies, K. Bielik, G. Osho and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Portsmouth vs Cardiff?: Portsmouth line up in a 4-2-3-1, Cardiff in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.