Championship · Regular Season - 7
SouthamptonvBristol City
Southampton
Bristol City·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Southampton and Bristol City finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Sou / Bri | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Southampton down the side and Bristol City across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 38%.
What we think
- Southampton59% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Southampton the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 58%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, which is what the market has it at too (60%).
For comparison, the market gives Southampton a 58% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 58% home · 22% draw · 20% away
Now: 58% home · 23% draw · 20% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Southampton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Akachukwu — doubtful (Injury)
- T. Harwood-Bellis — out (Injury)
- C. Jander — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
Bristol City
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Dickie — out (Injury)
- B. De Keersmaecker — out (Shoulder Injury)
- G. Tanner — doubtful (Knock)
- E. Adebayo — out (Inactive)
- A. Randell — out (Red Card)
- C. Pring — out (Ankle Injury)
- O. Thomas — out (Injury)
- L. McNally — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SouthamptonWDDWW
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Swansea 3–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Lincoln 1–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Birmingham 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Millwall 5–1(xG 3.2–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Stoke City 3–1
Bristol CityWWWDL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Burnley 2–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Preston 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Portsmouth 2–1(xG 0.6–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Birmingham 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Millwall 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Southampton have won 3 of their last 5.
- Southampton have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Southampton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Southampton's last 5.
- Southampton kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Bristol City have won 3 of their last 5.
- Bristol City have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bristol City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bristol City's last 5.
- Bristol City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Southampton
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Bristol City
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire · Referee: Sam Allison, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Southampton vs Bristol City?
- Our model makes Southampton the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 58%.
- How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Bristol City?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Southampton vs Bristol City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Southampton vs Bristol City?
- Southampton's reported absences and doubts include R. Akachukwu, T. Harwood-Bellis, C. Jander. Bristol City's include R. Dickie, B. De Keersmaecker, G. Tanner, E. Adebayo and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Southampton vs Bristol City?
- Southampton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bristol City in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.