Championship · Regular Season - 7
WatfordvStoke City
Watford
Stoke City·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Watford and Stoke City finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Wat / Sto | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Watford down the side and Stoke City across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 28%.
What we think
- Watford44% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Watford the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Watford a 41% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Now: 41% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Stoke City
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Watford
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Zemura — out (Inactive)
- B. Mlacic — out (Inactive)
- J. Ngakia — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Grieves — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Bove — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Akomeah — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Boadu — out (Injury)
- O. H. Traore — out (Injury)
- M. Bola — out (Hamstring Injury)
- K. Baah — out (Knock)
Stoke City
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. Lawal — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Cresswell — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Gallagher — out (Injury)
- J. Tchamadeu — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Ampah — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Ingelsson — out (Injury)
- B. Gibson — out (Head Injury)
- L. Cisse — out (Knock)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
WatfordWLLDD
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Preston 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v West Brom 0–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Swansea 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v West Ham 1–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Wrexham 1–1
Stoke CityDWWLL
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Cardiff 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Charlton 4–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Norwich 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Wolves 1–4(xG 0.9–2.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Southampton 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Watford have won 1 of their last 5.
- Watford have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Watford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Watford's last 5.
- Watford kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Stoke City have won 2 of their last 5.
- Stoke City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Stoke City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Stoke City's last 5.
- Stoke City kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Watford
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Stoke City
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Vicarage Road, Watford · Referee: Lewis Smith, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Watford vs Stoke City?
- Our model makes Watford the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Watford vs Stoke City?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Watford vs Stoke City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Watford vs Stoke City?
- Watford's reported absences and doubts include J. Zemura, B. Mlacic, J. Ngakia, J. Grieves and 6 others. Stoke City's include B. Lawal, A. Cresswell, S. Gallagher, J. Tchamadeu and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Watford vs Stoke City?
- Watford line up in a 4-2-3-1, Stoke City in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.