Liga MX · Apertura - 8
Club TijuanavClub Queretaro
Club Tijuana
Club Queretaro·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (9%). Club Tijuana and Club Queretaro finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Clu / Clu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Club Tijuana down the side and Club Queretaro across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Club Tijuana48% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Club Tijuana the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Club Tijuana a 47% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 47% home · 28% draw · 25% away
Now: 47% home · 28% draw · 25% away
Solid: the market over 12 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Club Tijuana
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Club Queretaro
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Club TijuanaWLWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0(xG 2.5–0.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Guadalajara Chivas 2–5
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Cruz Azul 2–1
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Atletico San Luis 0–0
- Sat 25 Jul · H v Leon 1–0
Club QueretaroWLDWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlas 3–1(xG 1.4–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Toluca 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–0
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 3–2
- Mon 27 Jul · A v CF Pachuca 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Club Tijuana have won 3 of their last 5.
- Club Tijuana have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Club Tijuana's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Club Tijuana's last 5.
- Club Tijuana kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Club Queretaro have won 3 of their last 5.
- Club Queretaro have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Club Queretaro's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Club Queretaro's last 5.
- Club Queretaro kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Club Tijuana
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Club Queretaro
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Caliente, Tijuana · Referee: Fernando Hernandez, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro?
- Our model makes Club Tijuana the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro?
- Club Tijuana line up in a 4-1-4-1, Club Queretaro in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.