La Liga · Regular Season - 5
Racing SantandervAlaves
Racing Santander
Alaves·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Racing Santander and Alaves finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Rac / Ala | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Racing Santander down the side and Alaves across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 34%.
What we think
- Racing Santander46% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Racing Santander the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 25% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 56% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Racing Santander a 38% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 27% draw · 34% away
Now: 38% home · 27% draw · 35% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Racing Santander
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Racing Santander
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Almeida — out (Red Card)
- S. Eriksson — out (Shoulder Injury)
- I. Luque — out (Inactive)
- Pedro Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Martin — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Guliashvili — out (Leg Injury)
Alaves
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- T. Martinez — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Manas — out (Injury)
- M. Rodriguez — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Valentini — out (Red Card)
- T. Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Garces — out (Suspended)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Racing SantanderLWLD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Rayo Vallecano 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Elche 3–2(xG 1.5–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Getafe 0–1(xG 1.3–1.2)
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2
AlavesWWDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Osasuna 5–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Villarreal 1–0(xG 0.8–1.3)
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Getafe 3–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Rayo Vallecano 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Racing Santander have won 1 of their last 4.
- Racing Santander have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Racing Santander's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Racing Santander's last 4.
- Racing Santander kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Alaves have won 3 of their last 5.
- Alaves have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Alaves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Alaves's last 5.
- Alaves kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Racing Santander
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Alaves
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
El Sardinero, Santander · Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Racing Santander vs Alaves?
- Our model makes Racing Santander the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Racing Santander vs Alaves?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Alaves?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Racing Santander vs Alaves?
- Racing Santander's reported absences and doubts include A. Almeida, S. Eriksson, I. Luque, Pedro Felipe and 2 others. Alaves's include T. Martinez, A. Manas, M. Rodriguez, N. Valentini and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Racing Santander vs Alaves?
- Racing Santander line up in a 4-2-3-1, Alaves in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.