Serie A · Regular Season - 27
CoritibavAtletico Paranaense
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense·
3 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cor / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Coritiba down the side and Atletico Paranaense across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Atletico Paranaense38% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atletico Paranaense the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Atletico Paranaense a 41% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 32% home · 30% draw · 38% away
Now: 30% home · 29% draw · 41% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Atletico Paranaense
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Coritiba
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Keno — out (Inactive)
- Joao Pedro Chermont — out (Inactive)
- Jacy — out (Inactive)
- Breno Lopes — out (Red Card)
- Tiago Coser — out (Yellow Cards)
- Tinga — out (Muscle Injury)
- Pedro Rangel — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- Lucas Ronier — out (Knee Injury)
- Josue — out (Injury)
- S. Gomez — out (Head Injury)
- Maicon — out (Inactive)
- Wallisson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Pedro Morisco — out (Shoulder Injury)
- Lucas Crepaldi — out (Inactive)
- Benassi — out (Toe Injury)
Atletico Paranaense
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- G. Benavidez — out (Inactive)
- Leo Derik — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Teran — out (Injury)
- J. Portilla — out (Injury)
- Luiz Gustavo — out (Inactive)
- L. Esquivel — out (Ankle Injury)
- B. Zapelli — out (Ankle Injury)
- Mycael — out (Leg Injury)
- Felipinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Julimar — out (Ankle Injury)
- Jadson — out (Injury)
- Bruninho — out (Inactive)
- Renan Peixoto — doubtful (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CoritibaLWWDW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Mirassol 1–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Remo 3–2(xG 1.5–2.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Sao Paulo 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Chapecoense-sc 2–1
Atletico ParanaenseLDWDW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cruzeiro 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Fluminense 3–3(xG 1.9–0.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Botafogo 3–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Santos 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Coritiba have won 3 of their last 5.
- Coritiba have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Coritiba's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Coritiba's last 5.
- Coritiba kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Coritiba W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Coritiba
7Context
Coritiba
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atletico Paranaense
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · Referee: W. do Nascimento
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Our model makes Atletico Paranaense the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Coritiba's reported absences and doubts include Keno, Joao Pedro Chermont, Jacy, Breno Lopes and 11 others. Atletico Paranaense's include G. Benavidez, Leo Derik, C. Teran, J. Portilla and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Coritiba line up in a 4-2-3-1, Atletico Paranaense in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.