Serie A · Regular Season - 27
CoritibavAtletico Paranaense
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense2026-09-12 ·
1Headline
Our bet on this match
None
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Atletico Paranaense the most likely of the three results, at 39%. Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
| Market | Outcome | Ours | Price | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 33% | — | — |
| Draw | 27% | — | — | |
| Away | 39% | — | — | |
| Goals over 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | — | — | |
| Goals over 1.5 | Over 1.5 | 76% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | — | — | |
| Goals over 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 30% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | — | — | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | — | — |
| No | 45% | — | — |
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Coritiba
Lineup not yet confirmed
- S. Gomez — out (Head Injury)
- Lucas Ronier — out (Inactive)
- Tinga — out (Calf Injury)
- Joao Pedro Chermont — out (Loan agreement)
- Tiago Coser — out (Red Card)
- Thiago Santos — out (Yellow Cards)
- Maicon — out (Inactive)
- Keiller — out (Loan agreement)
- Jacy — out (Red Card)
- Fabinho — out (Inactive)
- Bruno Melo — out (Red Card)
- Breno Lopes — out (Yellow Cards)
- Renato Marques — out (Red Card)
- Wallisson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Keno — out (Knee Injury)
- Gustavo — out (Injury)
- J. Lavega — out (Yellow Cards)
- Pedro Morisco — out (Shoulder Injury)
- Lucas Crepaldi — out (Inactive)
- Benassi — out (Toe Injury)
- Josue — out (Red Card)
- Rodrigo Rodrigues — out (Ankle Injury)
Atletico Paranaense
Lineup not yet confirmed
- B. Zapelli — out (Ankle Injury)
- Mycael — out (Leg Injury)
- Felipinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Benavidez — out (Inactive)
- J. Portilla — out (International duty)
- Leo Derik — out (Injury)
- L. Esquivel — out (Injury)
- C. Teran — out (Thigh Injury)
- Luiz Gustavo — out (Calf Injury)
- K. Viveros — out (Yellow Cards)
- Julimar — out (Ankle Injury)
- Jadson — out (Injury)
- Gilberto Junior — out (Loan agreement)
- Bruninho — out (Inactive)
- Chiqueti — out (Illness)
- Arthur Dias — out (Yellow Cards)
- Isaac — out (Inactive)
- Renan Viana — doubtful (Inactive)
- Renan Peixoto — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Garcia Castillo — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CoritibaWWDWL
- 2026-08-31 · A v Remo 3–2(xG 1.5–2.9)
- 2026-08-23 · H v Corinthians 2–1
- 2026-08-16 · A v Sao Paulo 1–1
- 2026-08-08 · H v Chapecoense-sc 2–1
- 2026-07-31 · H v Cruzeiro 0–1
Atletico ParanaenseDWDWD
- 2026-08-30 · H v Fluminense 3–3(xG 1.9–0.6)
- 2026-08-24 · A v Botafogo 3–2
- 2026-08-15 · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- 2026-08-09 · A v Santos 2–0
- 2026-07-30 · A v Corinthians 0–0
5Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Played at a neutral ground-9.5pp
- If we rate the home side a step too high-4.1pp
- If we rate the away side a step too low-2.8pp
6Context
Coritiba
Rest: 11 days · 1 match in 14d
Atletico Paranaense
Rest: 12 days · 1 match in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
7Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.