Serie A · Regular Season - 27
Atletico-MGvFluminense
Atletico-MG
Fluminense·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Atletico-MG and Fluminense finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Atl / Flu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atletico-MG down the side and Fluminense across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 46% against 43%.
What we think
- Atletico-MG42% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atletico-MG the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, against the market’s 43% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Atletico-MG a 44% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 29% draw · 28% away
Now: 44% home · 29% draw · 27% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Atletico-MG
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atletico-MG
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Ruan Tressoldi — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Preciado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lyanco — out (Foot Injury)
- R. Lodi — out (Suspended)
- Gustavo Scarpa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Cuello — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Roman — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Minda — out (Inactive)
- A. Franco — out (Personal Reasons)
- Maycon — out (Inactive)
- M. Cisse — out (Thigh Injury)
- Patrick Silva — out (Knee Injury)
- Vitor Hugo — out (Calf Injury)
- Alexsander — out (Knee Injury)
- Junior Santos — doubtful (Inactive)
Fluminense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Thiago Silva — out (Injury)
- Ignacio — out (Injury)
- Guga — out (Inactive)
- G. Cano — out (Injury)
- Alisson — out (Hip Injury)
- Hercules — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Acosta — out (Yellow Cards)
- John Kennedy — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Freytes — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Millan — out (Muscle Injury)
- Jemmes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Nonato — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Canobbio — out (International duty)
- J. Savarino — out (Rest)
- Martinelli — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Matheus Reis — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Bernal — out (Knee Injury)
- PH Ganso — doubtful (Inactive)
- Y. Soteldo — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atletico-MGLWDWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sao Paulo 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Vitoria 2–1(xG 1.5–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Internacional 0–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Gremio 3–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Remo 2–2
FluminenseWDWWD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Atletico Paranaense 3–3(xG 0.6–1.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Remo 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Palmeiras 3–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Botafogo 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atletico-MG have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico-MG have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico-MG's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atletico-MG's last 5.
- Atletico-MG kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5.
- Fluminense have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Fluminense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Fluminense's last 5.
- Fluminense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Atletico-MG W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Fluminense 1–0 Atletico-MG
7Context
Atletico-MG
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fluminense
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte · Referee: M. Delgado
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
- Our model makes Atletico-MG the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
- Atletico-MG's reported absences and doubts include Ruan Tressoldi, A. Preciado, Lyanco, R. Lodi and 11 others. Fluminense's include Thiago Silva, Ignacio, Guga, G. Cano and 15 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
- Atletico-MG line up in a 4-2-3-1, Fluminense in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.