Serie A · Regular Season - 27
PalmeirasvSao Paulo
Palmeiras
Sao Paulo·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Palmeiras and Sao Paulo finish on some other score 62% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Pal / Sao | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Palmeiras down the side and Sao Paulo across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 21%.
What we think
- Palmeiras62% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.20 at BetfairThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 51% against a market price of 44% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.3 goals, and 2.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 6 of those 10.
- 28 players reported unavailable — 15 for Palmeiras, 13 for Sao Paulo.
Our forecast makes Palmeiras the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 44% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Palmeiras a 59% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 58% home · 25% draw · 17% away
Now: 59% home · 25% draw · 16% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Sao Paulo
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Palmeiras
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Barboza — out (Red Card)
- Murilo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sosa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Piquerez — out (Foot Injury)
- Paulinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Khellven — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- Bruno Fuchs — out (Surgery)
- J. Lopez — out (Inactive)
- Jefte — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio — out (International duty)
- J. Arias — out (International duty)
- Vitor Roque — out (Ankle Injury)
- Figueiredo — out (Injury)
Sao Paulo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Pablo Maia — out (Yellow Cards)
- D. Bobadilla — out (Inactive)
- Lucca Marques — out (Jaw injury)
- R. Toloi — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Diaz — out (Personal Reasons)
- Sabino — out (Injury)
- Luciano — out (Inactive)
- Andre Silva — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jonathan Calleri — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Ramon — out (Injury)
- Lucas Moura — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Muscle Injury)
- Marcos Antonio — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PalmeirasDDWLD
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Botafogo 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Mirassol 1–1(xG 1.5–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Vasco DA Gama 4–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Fluminense 2–3
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Internacional 0–0
Sao PauloWWLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atletico-MG 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 2–1(xG 1.6–0.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Chapecoense-sc 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Coritiba 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Gremio 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Palmeiras have won 1 of their last 5.
- Palmeiras have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Palmeiras's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Palmeiras's last 5.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sao Paulo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sao Paulo's last 5.
- Sao Paulo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Palmeiras W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Sao Paulo 0–1 Palmeiras
7Context
Palmeiras
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sao Paulo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo · Referee: R. Klein
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
- Our model makes Palmeiras the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
- Palmeiras's reported absences and doubts include A. Barboza, Murilo, Allan Elias, R. Sosa and 11 others. Sao Paulo's include Pablo Maia, D. Bobadilla, Lucca Marques, R. Toloi and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
- Palmeiras line up in a 3-4-2-1, Sao Paulo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.