Serie A · Regular Season - 26
Sao PaulovAtletico-MG
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Sao Paulo44% · Match result
- Over 1.572% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sao Paulo the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Sao Paulo a 47% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 29% draw · 26% away
Now: 47% home · 28% draw · 25% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Sao Paulo
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sao Paulo
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Pablo Maia — out (Yellow Cards)
- D. Bobadilla — out (Inactive)
- Lucca Marques — out (Jaw injury)
- R. Toloi — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Diaz — out (Personal Reasons)
- Sabino — out (Injury)
- Luciano — out (Inactive)
- Andre Silva — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jonathan Calleri — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Ramon — out (Injury)
- Lucas Moura — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Muscle Injury)
- Marcos Antonio — out (Hamstring Injury)
Atletico-MG
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Ruan Tressoldi — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Preciado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lyanco — out (Foot Injury)
- R. Lodi — out (Suspended)
- Gustavo Scarpa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Cuello — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Roman — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Minda — out (Inactive)
- A. Franco — out (Personal Reasons)
- Maycon — out (Inactive)
- M. Cisse — out (Thigh Injury)
- Patrick Silva — out (Knee Injury)
- Vitor Hugo — out (Calf Injury)
- Alexsander — out (Knee Injury)
- Junior Santos — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sao PauloWLDLD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 2–1(xG 1.6–0.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Chapecoense-sc 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Coritiba 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Gremio 1–2
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Flamengo 1–1
Atletico-MGWDWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Vitoria 2–1(xG 1.5–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Internacional 0–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Gremio 3–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Remo 2–2
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Palmeiras 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sao Paulo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sao Paulo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sao Paulo's last 5.
- Sao Paulo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Atletico-MG have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atletico-MG have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atletico-MG's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico-MG's last 5.
- Atletico-MG kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Sao Paulo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Atletico-MG 1–0 Sao Paulo
7Context
Sao Paulo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atletico-MG
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo · Referee: B. Machado
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?
- Our model makes Sao Paulo the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?
- Sao Paulo's reported absences and doubts include Pablo Maia, D. Bobadilla, Lucca Marques, R. Toloi and 9 others. Atletico-MG's include Ruan Tressoldi, A. Preciado, Lyanco, R. Lodi and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG?
- Sao Paulo line up in a 3-4-2-1, Atletico-MG in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.