Serie A · Regular Season - 27
Chapecoense-scvInternacional
Chapecoense-sc
Internacional·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–20.9–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Chapecoense-sc and Internacional finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cha / Int | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chapecoense-sc down the side and Internacional across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 75% against 76%.
What we think
- Internacional52% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Internacional
Best price 2.25 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 44% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 25 players reported unavailable — 12 for Chapecoense-sc, 13 for Internacional.
Our forecast makes Internacional the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Internacional a 44% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 28% draw · 43% away
Now: 29% home · 27% draw · 44% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Internacional
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chapecoense-sc
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Giovanni Augusto — out (Inactive)
- Joao Paulo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Caetano — out (Yellow Cards)
- Y. Bolasie — out (Injury)
- Rafael Carvalheira — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio Garcez — out (Thigh Injury)
- Eduardo Doma — out (Yellow Cards)
- Camilo Reijers — out (Yellow Cards)
- Rafael Thyere — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Robert Conceicao — out (Knee Injury)
- Everton — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marcos Vinicius — doubtful (Inactive)
Internacional
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- Matheus Bahia — out (Red Card)
- R. Villagra — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Bernabei — out (Yellow Cards)
- Paulinho Paula — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Mercado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Gabriel — out (Red Card)
- Thiago Maia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Arhin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Rochet — out (Lower Back Injury)
- Kayky — out (Ankle Injury)
- F. Torres — out (International duty)
- A. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- Bruno Tabata — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Chapecoense-scWLWDL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Gremio 1–3(xG 2.8–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sao Paulo 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Bahia 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Coritiba 1–2
InternacionalLLDDD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Santos 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Bahia 2–3(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Atletico-MG 0–0
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Remo 1–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Palmeiras 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chapecoense-sc have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Internacional have won 0 of their last 5.
- Internacional have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Internacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Internacional's last 5.
- Internacional kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Chapecoense-sc W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Internacional 2–0 Chapecoense-sc
7Context
Chapecoense-sc
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Internacional
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Arena Condá, Chapecó · Referee: F. Rodrigues
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
- Our model makes Internacional the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
- Chapecoense-sc's reported absences and doubts include Giovanni Augusto, Joao Paulo, Victor Caetano, Y. Bolasie and 8 others. Internacional's include Matheus Bahia, R. Villagra, A. Bernabei, Paulinho Paula and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
- Chapecoense-sc line up in a 4-2-3-1, Internacional in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.