Serie A · Regular Season - 27
BotafogovRB Bragantino
Botafogo
RB Bragantino·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Botafogo and RB Bragantino finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bot / RB | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Botafogo down the side and RB Bragantino across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 77% against 79%.
What we think
- Botafogo57% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Botafogo
Best price 2.39 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
A half-Kelly stake at the cautious end of our range would be 2.00% of a bankroll, at odds of 2.39. Sizing, not advice: it assumes you can get that price, it is computed at 45% rather than our headline number, and it is halved and capped because the probability is an estimate and no single match should be able to matter much.
- We make this 57% against a market price of 41% — 16 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 87% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 31 players reported unavailable — 18 for Botafogo, 13 for RB Bragantino.
Our forecast makes Botafogo the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (55%).
For comparison, the market gives Botafogo a 41% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Now: 41% home · 27% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Botafogo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Barria — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Cabral — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheus Martins — out (Inactive)
- Marcal — out (Red Card)
- N. Ferraresi — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Correa — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Ponte — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Medina — out (Yellow Cards)
- Junior Santos — out (Foot Injury)
- Bastos — out (Injury)
- Alex Telles — out (Yellow Cards)
- Nathan Fernandes — out (Knee Injury)
- Allan — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Barboza — out (Inactive)
- S. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- C. Ramos — out (Inactive)
- Newton — out (Inactive)
- Kaio Pantaleao — out (Knee Injury)
RB Bragantino
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Rodriguinho — out (Inactive)
- A. Sant'Anna — out (Yellow Cards)
- I. Pitta — out (Yellow Cards)
- Fernando Santos — out (Illness)
- Gustavo Marques — out (Yellow Cards)
- Fabinho — out (Red Card)
- Vanderlan — out (Knee Injury)
- Gabriel — out (Rest)
- H. Mosquera — out (Yellow Cards)
- Alix Vinicius — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Herrera — out (Inactive)
- Davi Gomes — out (Knee Injury)
- Fabricio — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BotafogoDLLLD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Flamengo 0–3(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Atletico Paranaense 2–3
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Vitoria 0–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Fluminense 1–1
RB BragantinoLLWDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bahia 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sao Paulo 1–2(xG 0.5–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Gremio 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atletico Paranaense 1–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Corinthians 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Botafogo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Botafogo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Botafogo's last 5.
- Botafogo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- RB Bragantino have won 1 of their last 5.
- RB Bragantino have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of RB Bragantino's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of RB Bragantino's last 5.
- RB Bragantino kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Botafogo W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- RB Bragantino 1–2 Botafogo
7Context
Botafogo
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
RB Bragantino
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: F. Mendes
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
- Our model makes Botafogo the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
- Botafogo's reported absences and doubts include K. Barria, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Marcal and 14 others. RB Bragantino's include Rodriguinho, A. Sant'Anna, I. Pitta, Fernando Santos and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
- Botafogo line up in a 4-2-3-1, RB Bragantino in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.