Liga MX · Apertura - 8
Atlante FCvCF Pachuca
Atlante FC
CF Pachuca·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Atlante FC and CF Pachuca finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Atl / CF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atlante FC down the side and CF Pachuca across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Atlante FC43% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atlante FC the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 21% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes CF Pachuca the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives CF Pachuca a 40% chance. Our model makes it 29%.
2Market
Open: 26% home · 27% draw · 47% away
Now: 32% home · 28% draw · 40% away
Moved −7pp — the market moved away from CF Pachuca
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atlante FC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
CF Pachuca
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atlante FCDDLDW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Atlas 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Leon 1–1(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Tigres UANL 0–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Toluca 0–0
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Cruz Azul 3–2
CF PachucaWDDLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v FC Juarez 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 1–1(xG 1.5–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico San Luis 1–1
- Tue 18 Aug · H v Puebla 2–3
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Leon 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atlante FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atlante FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Atlante FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atlante FC's last 5.
- Atlante FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- CF Pachuca have won 1 of their last 5.
- CF Pachuca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of CF Pachuca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of CF Pachuca's last 5.
- CF Pachuca kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Atlante FC
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
CF Pachuca
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava, Mexico
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca?
- Our model makes Atlante FC the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours CF Pachuca at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.