Liga MX · Apertura - 8
TolucavAtlas
Toluca
Atlas·
5 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–01.9–0.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%). Toluca and Atlas finish on some other score 61% of the time. We show 3–0 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tol / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Toluca down the side and Atlas across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 34%.
What we think
- Toluca67% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Toluca the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 79%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 66%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 56% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Toluca a 66% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 65% home · 21% draw · 14% away
Now: 66% home · 21% draw · 13% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Toluca
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Toluca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Atlas
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TolucaWWDWL
- Mon 31 Aug · H v FC Juarez 4–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Club Queretaro 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atlante FC 0–0
- Mon 3 Aug · H v Necaxa 3–1
- Wed 22 Jul · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2
AtlasDLWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Atlante FC 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 1–3(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cruz Azul 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Monterrey 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Toluca have won 3 of their last 5.
- Toluca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Toluca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Toluca's last 5.
- Toluca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Atlas have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atlas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atlas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atlas's last 5.
- Atlas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Toluca
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Atlas
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca · Referee: Mario Terrazas Chavez, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?
- Our model makes Toluca the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 66%.
- How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Atlas?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atlas?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Toluca vs Atlas?
- Toluca line up in a 4-2-3-1, Atlas in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.