Liga MX · Apertura - 8
TolucavAtlas
Toluca
Atlas·
1Headline
We expect
3–01.9–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%). Toluca and Atlas finish on some other score 61% of the time. We show 3–0 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tol / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Toluca down the side and Atlas across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Toluca66% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Toluca the most likely of the three results, at 66% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 79%). Most likely is not likely: at 66% this result does not happen 34% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Toluca
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Atlas
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TolucaWWDWL
- Mon 31 Aug · H v FC Juarez 4–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Club Queretaro 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atlante FC 0–0
- Mon 3 Aug · H v Necaxa 3–1
- Wed 22 Jul · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2
AtlasLWWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 1–3(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cruz Azul 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Monterrey 0–2
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Santos Laguna 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going, and how these two have met — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter.
- Toluca have won 3 of their last 5.
- Toluca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Toluca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Toluca's last 5.
- Toluca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Atlas have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atlas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atlas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atlas's last 5.
- Atlas kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Toluca
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Atlas
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?
- Our model makes Toluca the most likely result at 66%. Most likely is not likely — at 66% it does not happen 34% of the time.
- Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atlas?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.