La Liga · Regular Season - 5
Athletic ClubvElche
Athletic Club
Elche·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Athletic Club and Elche finish on some other score 64% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ath / Elc | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Athletic Club down the side and Elche across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 35%.
What we think
- Athletic Club58% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Athletic Club the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 57% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Athletic Club a 68% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 69% home · 19% draw · 12% away
Now: 68% home · 19% draw · 12% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Athletic Club
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Athletic Club
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Gorosabel — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guruzeta — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Canales — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Djalo — out (Coach's decision)
- B. Prados Diaz — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Vivian — out (Hamstring Injury)
- N. Serrano — out (Coach's decision)
- U. Vencedor — out (Inactive)
- U. Egiluz — out (Knee Injury)
Elche
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- A. Boayar — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Lemar — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- Y. Santiago — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Osorio — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Diangana — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Athletic ClubWWLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atletico Madrid 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–0(xG 2.6–0.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · A v Barcelona 0–2(xG 0.2–3.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sevilla 1–3
- Sat 23 May · A v Real Madrid 2–4
ElcheLLLDD
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Real Sociedad 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–3(xG 1.1–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Barcelona 0–5(xG 0.7–4.4)
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Girona 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Athletic Club have won 2 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Athletic Club's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Athletic Club's last 5.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Elche have won 0 of their last 5.
- Elche have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Elche's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Elche's last 5.
- Elche kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Athletic Club have won 3, Elche 1, with 2 drawn.
- Athletic Club W–D–L
- 3–2–1
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 6
- Both scored
- 3 of 6
- Athletic Club 2–1 Elche
- Elche 0–0 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–1 Elche
- Elche 1–4 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 2–1 Elche
- Elche 0–0 Athletic Club
7Context
Athletic Club
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Elche
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
San Mamés, Bilbao · Referee: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Athletic Club vs Elche?
- Our model makes Athletic Club the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- How many goals are expected in Athletic Club vs Elche?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Elche?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Athletic Club vs Elche?
- Athletic Club's reported absences and doubts include A. Gorosabel, G. Guruzeta, P. Canales, A. Djalo and 5 others. Elche's include A. Boayar, T. Lemar, Y. Santiago, A. Osorio and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Athletic Club vs Elche?
- Athletic Club line up in a 4-2-3-1, Elche in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Elche?
- In their last 6 meetings, Athletic Club have won 3, Elche 1, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.