La Liga · Regular Season - 4
ElchevReal Sociedad
Elche
Real Sociedad·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Real Sociedad38% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Sociedad the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Real Sociedad a 46% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Now: 27% home · 27% draw · 46% away
Moved +6pp — the market moved towards Real Sociedad
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Elche
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- A. Boayar — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Lemar — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- Y. Santiago — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Osorio — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Diangana — out (Knee Injury)
Real Sociedad
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- I. Zubeldia — out (Injury)
- J. Martin — out (Red Card)
- P. Marin — out (Injury)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- G. Guedes — out (Injury)
- J. Pacheco — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Odriozola — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Gorrotxategi — out (Groin Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ElcheLLDDW
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–3(xG 1.1–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Barcelona 0–5(xG 0.7–4.4)
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Girona 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Getafe 1–0
Real SociedadDWLLD
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Celta Vigo 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Espanyol 2–1(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Wed 26 Aug · A v Real Madrid 1–4(xG 0.6–3.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Real Betis 0–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Espanyol 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Elche have won 1 of their last 5.
- Elche have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Elche's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Elche's last 5.
- Elche kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad have won 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Real Sociedad's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Sociedad's last 5.
- Real Sociedad kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Elche have won 0, Real Sociedad 5, with 1 drawn.
- Elche W–D–L
- 0–1–5
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 6
- Both scored
- 3 of 6
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Elche
- Elche 1–1 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Elche
- Elche 0–1 Real Sociedad
- Elche 1–2 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Elche
7Context
Elche
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Real Sociedad
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio Martínez Valero, Elche · Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Elche vs Real Sociedad?
- Our model makes Real Sociedad the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Elche vs Real Sociedad?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Elche vs Real Sociedad?
- Elche's reported absences and doubts include A. Boayar, T. Lemar, Y. Santiago, A. Osorio and 1 other. Real Sociedad's include I. Zubeldia, J. Martin, P. Marin, H. Fort and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Elche vs Real Sociedad?
- Elche line up in a 3-5-2, Real Sociedad in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Real Sociedad?
- In their last 6 meetings, Elche have won 0, Real Sociedad 5, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.