Serie A · Regular Season - 26
VitoriavGremio
Vitoria
Gremio·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Vitoria42% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 77% against a market price of 71% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 71% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.5 goals, and 2.8 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 32 players reported unavailable — 14 for Vitoria, 18 for Gremio.
Our forecast makes Vitoria the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Vitoria a 45% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 28% draw · 27% away
Now: 45% home · 28% draw · 27% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vitoria
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Ramon — out (Injury)
- Emmanuel Martinez — out (Injury)
- Caca — out (Suspended)
- Luan Candido — out (Red Card)
- Nathan Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- Renato Kayzer — out (Yellow Cards)
- Baralhas — out (Inactive)
- Jamerson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Pedro — out (Hand Injury)
- Edu — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Marinho — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Dudu — out (Back Injury)
- Claudinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Ramos — out (Knee Injury)
Gremio
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- Diego Caito — out (Injury)
- C. Pavon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marlon — out (Injury)
- F. Amuzu — out (Inactive)
- E. Noriega — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Mec — out (Inactive)
- Walter Kannemann — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Nardoni — out (Knee Injury)
- Gustavo Martins — out (Injury)
- M. Villasanti — out (Rest)
- M. Monsalve — out (Coach's decision)
- Fabian Balbuena — out (Coach's decision)
- Willian — out (Inactive)
- Joao Pedro — out (Transfer negotiations)
- L. Perez — out (Yellow Cards)
- Viery — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Melo — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Braithwaite — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VitoriaLLWLL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atletico-MG 1–2(xG 0.6–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Bahia 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Botafogo 1–0
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Flamengo 0–2
- Thu 30 Jul · H v Palmeiras 0–4
GremioWLLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Chapecoense-sc 3–1(xG 0.7–2.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v RB Bragantino 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Atletico-MG 0–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Sao Paulo 2–1
- Sun 26 Jul · H v Fluminense 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vitoria have won 1 of their last 5.
- Vitoria have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Vitoria's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Vitoria's last 5.
- Vitoria kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Gremio have won 2 of their last 5.
- Gremio have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Gremio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Gremio's last 5.
- Gremio kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Vitoria W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Gremio 2–0 Vitoria
7Context
Vitoria
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Gremio
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Barradao, Salvador · Referee: S. Sampaio
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vitoria vs Gremio?
- Our model makes Vitoria the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Gremio?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vitoria vs Gremio?
- Vitoria's reported absences and doubts include Ramon, Emmanuel Martinez, Caca, Luan Candido and 10 others. Gremio's include Diego Caito, C. Pavon, Marlon, F. Amuzu and 14 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Vitoria vs Gremio?
- Vitoria line up in a 4-2-3-1, Gremio in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.