Serie A · Regular Season - 3
UdinesevLazio
Udinese
Lazio·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Lazio40% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 75% against a market price of 69% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.1 goals, and 2.4 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.0 goals.
- 20 players reported unavailable — 10 for Udinese, 10 for Lazio.
- The price has moved 2.6% away from Lazio since it opened.
Our forecast makes Lazio the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Udinese the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Udinese a 35% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 32% home · 30% draw · 37% away
Now: 35% home · 31% draw · 35% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Lazio
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Udinese
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- O. Solet — out (Injury)
- J. Piotrowski — out (Heart Problems)
- J. Arizala — out (Thigh Injury)
- A. Zanoli — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Chakvetadze — out (Foot Injury)
- I. Gueye — doubtful (Injury)
- N. Zaniolo — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Palma — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Kabasele — out (Red Card)
- A. Buksa — out (Inactive)
Lazio
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- D. Doekhi — out (Hand Injury)
- F. Dele-Bashiru — out (Muscle Injury)
- N. Rovella — out (Injury)
- D. Cataldi — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Sutalo — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. Pellegrini — out (Injury)
- A. Marusic — out (Muscle Injury)
- Patric — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Gigot — out (Inactive)
- A. Furlanetto — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
UdineseWDLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Monza 3–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Como 1–1
- Sun 24 May · A v Napoli 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Cremonese 0–1
- Sat 9 May · A v Cagliari 2–0
LazioWWWLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Genoa 1–0(xG 1.6–0.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.6–1.8)
- Sat 23 May · H v Pisa 2–1
- Sun 17 May · A v AS Roma 0–2
- Sat 9 May · H v Inter 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Udinese have won 2 of their last 5.
- Udinese have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Udinese's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Udinese's last 5.
- Udinese kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Lazio have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lazio have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lazio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lazio's last 5.
- Lazio kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Udinese have won 2, Lazio 2, with 6 drawn.
- Udinese W–D–L
- 2–6–2
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- Lazio 3–3 Udinese
- Udinese 1–1 Lazio
- Lazio 1–1 Udinese
- Udinese 2–1 Lazio
- Lazio 1–2 Udinese
- Udinese 1–2 Lazio
- Udinese 0–1 Lazio
- Lazio 0–0 Udinese
- Udinese 1–1 Lazio
- Lazio 4–4 Udinese
7Context
Udinese
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Lazio
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Bluenergy Stadium, Udine · Referee: Paride Tremolada, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Udinese vs Lazio?
- Our model makes Lazio the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Udinese at 35%.
- Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Udinese vs Lazio?
- Udinese's reported absences and doubts include O. Solet, J. Piotrowski, J. Arizala, A. Zanoli and 6 others. Lazio's include D. Doekhi, F. Dele-Bashiru, N. Rovella, D. Cataldi and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Udinese vs Lazio?
- Udinese line up in a 3-4-2-1, Lazio in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
- In their last 10 meetings, Udinese have won 2, Lazio 2, with 6 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.