Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5
EstorilvArouca
Estoril
Arouca·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Estoril48% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Estoril the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Estoril a 37% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Now: 37% home · 28% draw · 35% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Arouca
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Estoril
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Arouca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
EstorilLLLD
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Benfica 1–2(xG 0.4–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Rio Ave 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Nacional 0–2
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Famalicao 1–1
AroucaWLWW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Maritimo 2–1(xG 1.6–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v FC Porto 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Moreirense 4–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Vitória SC 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Estoril have won 0 of their last 4.
- Estoril have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 1 of Estoril's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Estoril's last 4.
- Estoril kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Arouca have won 3 of their last 4.
- Arouca have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 2 of Arouca's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Arouca's last 4.
- Arouca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Estoril
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Arouca
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril · Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Estoril vs Arouca?
- Our model makes Estoril the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Estoril vs Arouca?
- Estoril line up in a 4-2-3-1, Arouca in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.