Serie A · Regular Season - 3
CagliarivLecce
Cagliari
Lecce·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Cagliari43% · Match result
- Over 1.570% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cagliari the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Cagliari a 46% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 30% draw · 22% away
Now: 46% home · 30% draw · 24% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Cagliari
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cagliari
Confirmed · 4-3-2-1
- J. Pedro — doubtful (Injury)
- Y. Mina — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Nzola — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Felici — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Sugawara — out (Inactive)
- Kevin — out (Personal Reasons)
- Y. Trepy — out (Injury)
- R. Idrissi — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Esposito — out (Injury)
- A. Albarracin — out (Inactive)
Lecce
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- M. Berisha — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- Tiago Gabriel — out (Injury)
- W. Geubbels — out (Ankle Injury)
- O. Gandelman — out (Inactive)
- L. Banda — out (Inactive)
- A. Gallo — doubtful (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CagliariLWWWL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Inter 0–1(xG 0.5–3.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Parma 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v AC Milan 2–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Torino 2–1
- Sat 9 May · H v Udinese 0–2
LecceLWWWL
- Mon 31 Aug · H v AS Roma 0–4(xG 0.7–3.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.7–2.0)
- Sun 24 May · H v Genoa 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Sassuolo 3–2
- Sat 9 May · H v Juventus 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cagliari have won 3 of their last 5.
- Cagliari have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Cagliari's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cagliari's last 5.
- Cagliari kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Lecce have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lecce have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lecce's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lecce's last 5.
- Lecce kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Cagliari have won 2, Lecce 2, with 2 drawn.
- Cagliari W–D–L
- 2–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 6
- Both scored
- 4 of 6
- Cagliari 0–2 Lecce
- Lecce 1–2 Cagliari
- Cagliari 4–1 Lecce
- Lecce 1–0 Cagliari
- Cagliari 1–1 Lecce
- Lecce 1–1 Cagliari
7Context
Cagliari
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Lecce
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Unipol Domus, Cagliari · Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Cagliari vs Lecce?
- Our model makes Cagliari the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Cagliari vs Lecce?
- Cagliari's reported absences and doubts include J. Pedro, Y. Mina, M. Nzola, M. Felici and 6 others. Lecce's include M. Berisha, Tiago Gabriel, W. Geubbels, O. Gandelman and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cagliari vs Lecce?
- Cagliari line up in a 4-3-2-1, Lecce in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lecce?
- In their last 6 meetings, Cagliari have won 2, Lecce 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.