La Liga · Regular Season - 4
GetafevCelta Vigo
Getafe
Celta Vigo·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Getafe36% · Match result
- Over 1.569% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 56% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 83% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 1.3 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.3 goals.
- 19 players reported unavailable — 11 for Getafe, 8 for Celta Vigo.
Our forecast makes Getafe the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Getafe a 37% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 33% draw · 28% away
Now: 37% home · 34% draw · 29% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Getafe
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Getafe
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- M. Martin — out (Thigh Injury)
- Kiko Femenia — out (Red Card)
- R. Terrats — out (Inactive)
- B. Mayoral — out (Injury)
- A. Garcia — out (Injury)
- A. Abqar — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Satriano — doubtful (Injury)
- Z. Romero — out (Red Card)
- Francho — out (Injury)
- C. Uche — out (Knee Injury)
- Juanmi — out (Injury)
Celta Vigo
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. Iglesias — out (Injury)
- I. Aspas — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. El Abdellaoui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Antanon — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Febas — out (Ribs Injury)
- M. Vecino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Perez — out (Inactive)
- M. Alonso — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GetafeLWLWL
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–1(xG 0.7–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Racing Santander 1–0(xG 1.2–1.3)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Alaves 0–3
- Sat 23 May · H v Osasuna 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Elche 0–1
Celta VigoDLLDW
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Real Sociedad 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Athletic Club 0–2(xG 0.6–2.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Osasuna 1–2(xG 0.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Valencia 0–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Sevilla 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Getafe have won 2 of their last 5.
- Getafe have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Getafe's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Getafe's last 5.
- Getafe kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Celta Vigo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Celta Vigo's last 5.
- Celta Vigo kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Getafe have won 4, Celta Vigo 3, with 3 drawn.
- Getafe W–D–L
- 4–3–3
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Getafe 0–0 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 0–2 Getafe
- Getafe 1–2 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 1–0 Getafe
- Getafe 3–2 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 2–2 Getafe
- Getafe 1–0 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Getafe
- Celta Vigo 0–2 Getafe
- Getafe 0–3 Celta Vigo
7Context
Getafe
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Celta Vigo
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe · Referee: César Soto Grado, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
- Our model makes Getafe the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- Will both teams score in Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
- Getafe's reported absences and doubts include M. Martin, Kiko Femenia, R. Terrats, B. Mayoral and 7 others. Celta Vigo's include B. Iglesias, I. Aspas, J. El Abdellaoui, A. Antanon and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
- Getafe line up in a 5-3-2, Celta Vigo in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Celta Vigo?
- In their last 10 meetings, Getafe have won 4, Celta Vigo 3, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.