La Liga · Regular Season - 6
Real SociedadvCelta Vigo
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Cel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Sociedad down the side and Celta Vigo across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 52% against 51%.
What we think
- Real Sociedad47% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Sociedad the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Thu 3 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Real Sociedad a 52% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 27% draw · 25% away
Now: 52% home · 26% draw · 22% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Real Sociedad
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Sociedad
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- I. Zubeldia — out (Injury)
- J. Martin — out (Red Card)
- P. Marin — out (Injury)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- G. Guedes — out (Injury)
- J. Pacheco — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Odriozola — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Gorrotxategi — out (Groin Injury)
Celta Vigo
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. Iglesias — out (Injury)
- I. Aspas — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. El Abdellaoui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Antanon — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Febas — out (Ribs Injury)
- M. Vecino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Perez — out (Inactive)
- M. Alonso — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real SociedadWLLDL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Espanyol 2–1(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Wed 26 Aug · A v Real Madrid 1–4(xG 0.6–3.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Real Betis 0–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Espanyol 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Valencia 3–4
Celta VigoLLDWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Athletic Club 0–2(xG 0.6–2.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Osasuna 1–2(xG 0.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Valencia 0–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Sevilla 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Athletic Club 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Sociedad have won 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Sociedad's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Sociedad's last 5.
- Real Sociedad kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Celta Vigo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Celta Vigo's last 5.
- Celta Vigo kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Real Sociedad have won 5, Celta Vigo 2, with 3 drawn.
- Real Sociedad W–D–L
- 5–3–2
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 2–0 Real Sociedad
- Celta Vigo 0–1 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Celta Vigo
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 1–2 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo 0–2 Real Sociedad
7Context
Real Sociedad
Rest: 5 days · 3 matches in 14d
Celta Vigo
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián · Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
- Our model makes Real Sociedad the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
- Real Sociedad's reported absences and doubts include I. Zubeldia, J. Martin, P. Marin, H. Fort and 4 others. Celta Vigo's include B. Iglesias, I. Aspas, J. El Abdellaoui, A. Antanon and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
- Real Sociedad line up in a 4-4-2, Celta Vigo in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
- In their last 10 meetings, Real Sociedad have won 5, Celta Vigo 2, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.