Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 3
GentvOH Leuven
Gent
OH Leuven·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Gent and OH Leuven finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gen / OH | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Gent down the side and OH Leuven across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 51%.
What we think
- Gent55% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Gent the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Thu 3 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Gent a 57% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 23% draw · 18% away
Now: 57% home · 25% draw · 18% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Gent
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Gent
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
OH Leuven
Confirmed · formation n/a
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GentWWW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Club Brugge KV 2–1(xG 1.4–0.7)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v RAAL La Louvière 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v KV Mechelen 2–0
OH LeuvenLLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Standard Liege 1–2(xG 1.9–1.4)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Club Brugge KV 0–3
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Charleroi 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Gent have won 3 of their last 3.
- Gent have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of Gent's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Gent's last 3.
- Gent kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
- OH Leuven have won 0 of their last 3.
- OH Leuven have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 3 of OH Leuven's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of OH Leuven's last 3.
- OH Leuven kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Gent
Rest: 4 days · 1 match in 14d
OH Leuven
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
Planet Group Arena, Gent · Referee: M. Allaerts
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Gent vs OH Leuven?
- Our model makes Gent the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Gent vs OH Leuven?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Gent vs OH Leuven?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Gent vs OH Leuven?
- Gent line up in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.