Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
ToulousevLille
Toulouse
Lille·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.1–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (9%). Toulouse and Lille finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Tou / Lil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Toulouse down the side and Lille across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 29%.
What we think
- Lille40% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lille the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Thu 3 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Lille a 50% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 28% home · 29% draw · 44% away
Now: 23% home · 27% draw · 50% away
Moved +6pp — the market moved towards Lille
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Toulouse
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Nicolaisen — out (Calf Injury)
- G. Restes — out (Injury)
- Y. Gboho — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Donnum — out (Personal Reasons)
- N. Sigur — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Vossah — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Francis — out (Muscle Injury)
Lille
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. Nianzou — out (Knock)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- L. Srdanovic — out (Inactive)
- S. Diaoune — out (Inactive)
- B. Andre — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Igamane — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ToulouseDLDWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Stade Brestois 29 2–2(xG 1.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lyon 0–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Nantes 0–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Lyon 2–1
- Sun 3 May · A v Strasbourg 2–1
LilleDWLWD
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–2(xG 1.1–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Angers 2–0(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 17 May · H v Auxerre 0–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Monaco 1–0
- Sun 3 May · H v Le Havre 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Toulouse have won 2 of their last 5.
- Toulouse have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Toulouse's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Toulouse's last 5.
- Toulouse kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Lille have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lille have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Lille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lille's last 5.
- Lille kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Toulouse have won 1, Lille 6, with 1 drawn.
- Toulouse W–D–L
- 1–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Toulouse 0–4 Lille
- Lille 2–1 Toulouse
- Toulouse 1–2 Lille
- Lille 2–1 Toulouse
- Toulouse 3–1 Lille
- Lille 1–1 Toulouse
- Toulouse 0–2 Lille
- Lille 2–1 Toulouse
7Context
Toulouse
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lille
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse · Referee: Mathieu Vernice, France
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Toulouse vs Lille?
- Our model makes Lille the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Lille?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Toulouse vs Lille?
- Toulouse's reported absences and doubts include R. Nicolaisen, G. Restes, Y. Gboho, A. Donnum and 3 others. Lille's include T. Nianzou, M. Fernandez-Pardo, L. Srdanovic, S. Diaoune and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Toulouse vs Lille?
- Toulouse line up in a 4-2-3-1, Lille in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
- In their last 8 meetings, Toulouse have won 1, Lille 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.