Premiership · Regular Season - 5
HibernianvHeart Of Midlothian
Hibernian
Heart Of Midlothian·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.3–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hib / Hea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Hibernian down the side and Heart Of Midlothian across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 33%.
What we think
- Hibernian39% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Hibernian the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Thu 3 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 55% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Hibernian a 38% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 28% draw · 35% away
Now: 38% home · 27% draw · 35% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Hibernian
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
No reported absences.
Heart Of Midlothian
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
HibernianWWL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Dundee 2–1(xG 2.4–0.8)
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Rangers 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Motherwell 1–2
Heart Of MidlothianWWL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v ST Johnstone 2–1(xG 1.7–1.2)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Dundee Utd 4–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Aberdeen 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Hibernian have won 2 of their last 3.
- Hibernian have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of Hibernian's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Hibernian's last 3.
- Hibernian kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Heart Of Midlothian have won 2 of their last 3.
- Heart Of Midlothian have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 3.
- Heart Of Midlothian kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Hibernian
Rest: 4 days · 1 match in 14d
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
Easter Road, Edinburgh · Referee: D. Robertson
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Our model makes Hibernian the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Hibernian line up in a 3-4-1-2, Heart Of Midlothian in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.