La Liga · Regular Season - 6
BarcelonavRacing Santander
Barcelona
Racing Santander·
7 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–13.7–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 3–1 (8%), then 3-0 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Barcelona and Racing Santander finish on some other score 78% of the time.
| Bar / Rac | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Barcelona down the side and Racing Santander across. These 83.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 16.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 58% against 75%.
What we think
- Barcelona85% · Match result
- Over 2.579% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Barcelona the most likely of the three results, at 85% (we would not be surprised by anything from 76% to 92%). Most likely is not likely: at 85% this result does not happen 15% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 92%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 79%, against the market’s 89% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Barcelona a 92% chance. Our model makes it 85%.
2Market
Open: 92% home · 5% draw · 3% away
Now: 92% home · 6% draw · 3% away
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Barcelona
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Bisiwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Garcia — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Livakovic — out (Inactive)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- Rodri — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Balde — out (Coach's decision)
- F. de Jong — out (Knee Injury)
- Gavi — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Bardghji — out (Knee Injury)
Racing Santander
Confirmed · 4-1-3-2
- A. Almeida — out (Red Card)
- S. Eriksson — out (Shoulder Injury)
- I. Luque — out (Inactive)
- Pedro Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Martin — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Guliashvili — out (Leg Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BarcelonaWWWWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Levante 4–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Valencia 5–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 5–2(xG 2.8–1.1)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Athletic Club 2–0(xG 3.9–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Elche 5–0(xG 4.4–0.7)
Racing SantanderWLWLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Alaves 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Rayo Vallecano 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Elche 3–2(xG 1.5–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Getafe 0–1(xG 1.3–1.2)
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Barcelona have won 5 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Barcelona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Barcelona's last 5.
- Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Racing Santander have won 2 of their last 5.
- Racing Santander have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Racing Santander's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Racing Santander's last 5.
- Racing Santander kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Barcelona
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Racing Santander
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Camp Nou, Barcelona · Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Barcelona vs Racing Santander?
- Our model makes Barcelona the most likely result at 85%. Most likely is not likely — at 85% it does not happen 15% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 92%.
- How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Racing Santander?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 79%, and under 2.5 at 21%.
- Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Racing Santander?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Barcelona vs Racing Santander?
- Barcelona's reported absences and doubts include J. Bisiwu, J. Garcia, D. Livakovic, M. Casado and 6 others. Racing Santander's include A. Almeida, S. Eriksson, I. Luque, Pedro Felipe and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Barcelona vs Racing Santander?
- Barcelona line up in a 4-3-3, Racing Santander in a 4-1-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.