La Liga · Regular Season - 5
LevantevBarcelona
Levante
Barcelona·
2 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–2.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Levante and Barcelona finish on some other score 74% of the time.
| Lev / Bar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Levante down the side and Barcelona across. These 97.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 41% against 57%.
What we think
- Barcelona60% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 59% against a market price of 43% — 16 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 78% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 4.0 expected across the 5 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.0 goals.
- 14 players reported unavailable — 4 for Levante, 10 for Barcelona.
Our forecast makes Barcelona the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 83%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, against the market’s 77% — a 13 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Barcelona a 83% chance. Our model makes it 60%.
2Market
Open: 6% home · 11% draw · 83% away
Now: 6% home · 11% draw · 83% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Levante
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- H. Sotelo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Etta Eyong — out (Injury)
- R. Brugue — out (Red Card)
- A. Primo — out (Shoulder Injury)
Barcelona
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Bisiwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Garcia — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Livakovic — out (Inactive)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- Rodri — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Balde — out (Coach's decision)
- F. de Jong — out (Knee Injury)
- Gavi — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Bardghji — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LevanteDWDLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Malaga 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Real Betis 5–2(xG 3.0–2.0)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Espanyol 0–3
- Sat 23 May · A v Real Betis 1–2
BarcelonaWWWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Valencia 5–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 5–2(xG 2.8–1.1)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Athletic Club 2–0(xG 3.9–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Elche 5–0(xG 4.4–0.7)
- Sat 23 May · A v Valencia 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Levante have won 1 of their last 5.
- Levante have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Levante's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Levante's last 5.
- Levante kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Barcelona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Barcelona's last 5.
- Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Levante have won 0, Barcelona 4, with 0 drawn.
- Levante W–D–L
- 0–0–4
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 4
- Both scored
- 2 of 4
- Barcelona 3–0 Levante
- Levante 2–3 Barcelona
- Levante 2–3 Barcelona
- Barcelona 3–0 Levante
7Context
Levante
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Barcelona
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia · Referee: Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Levante vs Barcelona?
- Our model makes Barcelona the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 83%.
- How many goals are expected in Levante vs Barcelona?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in Levante vs Barcelona?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Levante vs Barcelona?
- Levante's reported absences and doubts include H. Sotelo, K. Etta Eyong, R. Brugue, A. Primo. Barcelona's include J. Bisiwu, J. Garcia, D. Livakovic, M. Casado and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Levante vs Barcelona?
- Levante line up in a 4-3-3, Barcelona in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Barcelona?
- In their last 4 meetings, Levante have won 0, Barcelona 4, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.