Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Sporting Kansas CityvLos Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles FC·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–2.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (9%). Sporting Kansas City and Los Angeles FC finish on some other score 73% of the time.
| Spo / Los | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sporting Kansas City down the side and Los Angeles FC across. These 97.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 82% against 83%.
What we think
- Los Angeles FC62% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Los Angeles FC the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, which is what the market has it at too (62%).
For comparison, the market gives Los Angeles FC a 57% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 21% home · 23% draw · 57% away
Now: 21% home · 23% draw · 57% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sporting Kansas City
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Diego Borges — out (Groin Injury)
- Capita — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. James — out (Knee Injury)
- O. Blorian — out (Chest Injury)
- Z. Bassong — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Davis — out (Injury)
- K. Agyabeng — out (Red Card)
- J. Reynolds — out (Muscle Injury)
Los Angeles FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Shaffelburg — out (International duty)
- A. Long — out (Red Card)
- D. Bouanga — out (International duty)
- T. Tillman — out (Injury)
- S. Palencia — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Walta — out (International duty)
- J. Terry — out (International duty)
- M. Choiniere — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sporting Kansas CityLLLDL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v FC Dallas 3–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3(xG 0.4–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v St. Louis City 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–2
Los Angeles FCWDDDL
- Thu 10 Sep · H v New York Red Bulls 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Real Salt Lake 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v DC United 0–0(xG 1.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Portland Timbers 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 0 of their last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Los Angeles FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Los Angeles FC's last 5.
- Los Angeles FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Sporting Kansas City W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Los Angeles FC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City
7Context
Sporting Kansas City
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Los Angeles FC
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: C. Penso
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model makes Los Angeles FC the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?
- Sporting Kansas City's reported absences and doubts include Diego Borges, Capita, I. James, O. Blorian and 4 others. Los Angeles FC's include J. Shaffelburg, A. Long, D. Bouanga, T. Tillman and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?
- Sporting Kansas City line up in a 4-4-2, Los Angeles FC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.