Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
San Jose EarthquakesvHouston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| San / Hou | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, San Jose Earthquakes down the side and Houston Dynamo across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 33%.
What we think
- San Jose Earthquakes51% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: San Jose Earthquakes
Best price 2.45 at Bet365The number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 51% against a market price of 39% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 8 for San Jose Earthquakes, 10 for Houston Dynamo.
Our forecast makes San Jose Earthquakes the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, which is what the market has it at too (56%).
For comparison, the market gives San Jose Earthquakes a 39% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 26% draw · 34% away
Now: 39% home · 27% draw · 34% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
San Jose Earthquakes
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- R. Vieira — out (International duty)
- P. Judd — out (Injury)
- T. Werner — out (Injury)
- D. Johnson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Edwards — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Tsakiris — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gunn — out (International duty)
- O. Bouda — out (International duty)
Houston Dynamo
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- A. Resch — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- Felipe Andrade — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Saracchi — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Lucas Halter — out (Yellow Cards)
- Antonio Carlos — out (Knee Injury)
- E. Sviatchenko — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Quinones — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Maurer — out (Concussion)
- M. Arana — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
San Jose EarthquakesWDDLL
- Thu 10 Sep · A v San Diego 3–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Austin 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Houston Dynamo 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Minnesota United FC 1–5
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1
Houston DynamoWDDLW
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Real Salt Lake 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Charlotte 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v St. Louis City 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of their last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Houston Dynamo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Houston Dynamo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Houston Dynamo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Houston Dynamo's last 5.
- Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- San Jose Earthquakes W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose Earthquakes
7Context
San Jose Earthquakes
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Houston Dynamo
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
PayPal Park · Referee: R. Mendoza
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
- Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
- San Jose Earthquakes's reported absences and doubts include R. Vieira, P. Judd, T. Werner, D. Johnson and 4 others. Houston Dynamo's include A. Resch, L. Foster, Felipe Andrade, M. Saracchi and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
- San Jose Earthquakes line up in a 3-4-2-1, Houston Dynamo in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.