Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 25
Real Salt LakevNew York City FC
Real Salt Lake
New York City FC·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Real Salt Lake and New York City FC finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Salt Lake down the side and New York City FC across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 60%.
What we think
- Real Salt Lake40% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Salt Lake the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 60% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Real Salt Lake a 47% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 47% home · 25% draw · 27% away
Now: 47% home · 25% draw · 27% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Salt Lake
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- D. Zagar — out (Inactive)
- J. Sanabria — out (International duty)
- L. Moisa — out (International duty)
- S. Lobjanidze — out (International duty)
- A. Katranis — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Luna — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Engel — out (Hamstring Injury)
- J. J. Arias — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Guilavogui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Hezarkhani — out (Toe Injury)
- Z. Booth — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Yedlin — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Henry — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (International duty)
New York City FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- A. O'Neill — out (International duty)
- T. Gray — out (International duty)
- K. Parks — out (Injury)
- Talles Magno — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Trewin — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Ilenic — out (International duty)
- M. Freese — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real Salt LakeLDLLL
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Houston Dynamo 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Los Angeles FC 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1(xG 0.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v FC Dallas 3–4
New York City FCLDDDL
- Thu 10 Sep · H v New England Revolution 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Nashville SC 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Toronto FC 1–1(xG 0.4–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v New England Revolution 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Salt Lake have won 0 of their last 5.
- Real Salt Lake have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Salt Lake's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Salt Lake's last 5.
- Real Salt Lake kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- New York City FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- New York City FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of New York City FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of New York City FC's last 5.
- New York City FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Real Salt Lake
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
New York City FC
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
America First Field, Sandy · Referee: A. Ndiaye
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
- Our model makes Real Salt Lake the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
- Real Salt Lake's reported absences and doubts include D. Zagar, J. Sanabria, L. Moisa, S. Lobjanidze and 10 others. New York City FC's include A. O'Neill, T. Gray, K. Parks, Talles Magno and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
- Real Salt Lake line up in a 5-4-1, New York City FC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.