Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
New York City FCvNew England Revolution
New York City FC
New England Revolution·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). New York City FC and New England Revolution finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| New / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, New York City FC down the side and New England Revolution across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- New York City FC55% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: New York City FC
Best price 2.56 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 55% against a market price of 38% — 17 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 76% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 17 players reported unavailable — 7 for New York City FC, 10 for New England Revolution.
- The price has moved 7.1% away from New York City FC since it opened.
Our forecast makes New York City FC the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives New York City FC a 38% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 25% draw · 30% away
Now: 38% home · 27% draw · 36% away
Moved −7pp — the market moved away from New York City FC
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
New York City FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- A. O'Neill — out (International duty)
- T. Gray — out (International duty)
- K. Parks — out (Injury)
- Talles Magno — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Trewin — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Ilenic — out (International duty)
- M. Freese — out (International duty)
New England Revolution
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- B. Raines — out (International duty)
- P. Miller — out (International duty)
- I. Feingold — out (International duty)
- L. Langoni — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Harrison — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Farrell — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- M. Polster — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Campana — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Turgeman — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
New York City FCDDDLL
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Nashville SC 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Toronto FC 1–1(xG 0.4–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v New England Revolution 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 2–3
New England RevolutionLWDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 3–1(xG 1.4–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v DC United 3–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Toronto FC 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- New York City FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- New York City FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of New York City FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of New York City FC's last 5.
- New York City FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have won 2 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of New England Revolution's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of New England Revolution's last 5.
- New England Revolution kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- New York City FC W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FC
7Context
New York City FC
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
New England Revolution
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Yankee Stadium, New York · Referee: A. Chapman
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
- Our model makes New York City FC the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- Will both teams score in New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
- New York City FC's reported absences and doubts include A. O'Neill, T. Gray, K. Parks, Talles Magno and 3 others. New England Revolution's include B. Raines, P. Miller, I. Feingold, L. Langoni and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
- New York City FC line up in a 4-3-3, New England Revolution in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.