Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
AustinvColorado Rapids
Austin
Colorado Rapids·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Austin and Colorado Rapids finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Aus / Col | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Austin down the side and Colorado Rapids across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Austin40% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Austin the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Austin a 38% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 27% draw · 35% away
Now: 38% home · 27% draw · 35% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Austin
Confirmed · formation n/a
- M. Uzuni — out (International duty)
- Guilherme Biro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Placheta — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Wolff — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Desler — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- B. Hines-Ike — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Nelson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Pereira — out (Injury)
- J. Rosales — out (Yellow Cards)
Colorado Rapids
Confirmed · formation n/a
- W. Frederick — out (International duty)
- Y. Maziz — out (Injury)
- R. Cannon — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Navarro — out (Injury)
- J. Atencio — out (Yellow Cards)
- Z. Steffen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Travis — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fadal — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Diop — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Minoungou — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AustinDWDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v San Jose Earthquakes 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 2–1(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–1
- Mon 17 Aug · H v FC Dallas 1–2
Colorado RapidsLWLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Columbus Crew 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 1–0(xG 1.6–0.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Diego 0–3
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Sporting Kansas City 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Austin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Austin have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Austin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Austin's last 5.
- Austin kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Colorado Rapids have won 3 of their last 5.
- Colorado Rapids have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Colorado Rapids's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Colorado Rapids's last 5.
- Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Austin W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Colorado Rapids 1–0 Austin
7Context
Austin
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Colorado Rapids
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Q2 Stadium, Austin · Referee: S. Demianchuk
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Austin vs Colorado Rapids?
- Our model makes Austin the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Austin vs Colorado Rapids?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Austin vs Colorado Rapids?
- Austin's reported absences and doubts include M. Uzuni, Guilherme Biro, P. Placheta, O. Wolff and 5 others. Colorado Rapids's include W. Frederick, Y. Maziz, R. Cannon, M. Navarro and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.