Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Portland TimbersvSt. Louis City
Portland Timbers
St. Louis City·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%). Portland Timbers and St. Louis City finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Por / St. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Portland Timbers down the side and St. Louis City across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Portland Timbers48% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Portland Timbers the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Portland Timbers a 39% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 24% draw · 33% away
Now: 39% home · 24% draw · 37% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards St. Louis City
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Portland Timbers
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Z. McGraw — out (Inactive)
- O. Fernandez — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Da Costa — out (Concussion)
- V. Janssen — out (Red Card)
- D. Chara — out (Thigh Injury)
- A. Bonetig — out (Upper Back Injury)
- J. Mosquera — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Caicedo — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Bassett — out (Injury)
- A. Aravena — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Waterman — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Surman — out (Knee Injury)
St. Louis City
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- B. McSorley — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- P. Ault — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- C. Wallem — out (Yellow Cards)
- T. Ostrak — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Pearce — out (Injury)
- C. Durkin — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Jeong — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Orozco — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Totland — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Downs — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Portland TimbersWLDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Minnesota United FC 5–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Austin 1–2(xG 2.0–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Los Angeles FC 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v San Diego 3–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Chicago Fire 1–2
St. Louis CityWDWDW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Dallas 3–3(xG 1.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 2–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Sporting Kansas City 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v San Jose Earthquakes 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Portland Timbers have won 2 of their last 5.
- Portland Timbers have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Portland Timbers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Portland Timbers's last 5.
- Portland Timbers kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- St. Louis City have won 3 of their last 5.
- St. Louis City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of St. Louis City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of St. Louis City's last 5.
- St. Louis City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Portland Timbers
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
St. Louis City
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Providence Park, Portland · Referee: F. Bazakos
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
- Our model makes Portland Timbers the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
- Portland Timbers's reported absences and doubts include Z. McGraw, O. Fernandez, D. Da Costa, V. Janssen and 8 others. St. Louis City's include B. McSorley, P. Ault, C. Wallem, T. Ostrak and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
- Portland Timbers line up in a 4-3-3, St. Louis City in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.