Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
San DiegovSan Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
San Jose Earthquakes·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes finish on some other score 74% of the time.
| San / San | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, San Diego down the side and San Jose Earthquakes across. These 97.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- San Diego57% · Match result
- Over 1.583% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes San Diego the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives San Diego a 55% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 22% draw · 25% away
Now: 55% home · 22% draw · 23% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards San Diego
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
San Diego
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- dos Santos CJ — out (International duty)
- S. Vines — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Mighten — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Gabriel Pirani — out (Injury)
- J. Tverskov — out (Red Card)
- A. Pellegrino — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Bombino — out (Red Card)
- A. Reyes — out (Leg Injury)
- W. Kumado — out (Leg Injury)
- L. Morgan — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- P. Sisniega — out (Back Injury)
- W. Eisner — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Valakari — out (International duty)
- E. Achouri — out (International duty)
San Jose Earthquakes
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Vieira — out (International duty)
- P. Judd — out (Injury)
- T. Werner — out (Injury)
- D. Johnson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Edwards — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Tsakiris — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gunn — out (International duty)
- O. Bouda — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
San DiegoLWWLW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Orlando City SC 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–1(xG 2.8–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Los Angeles FC 1–0
San Jose EarthquakesDDLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Austin 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Houston Dynamo 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Minnesota United FC 1–5
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v St. Louis City 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- San Diego have won 3 of their last 5.
- San Diego have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of San Diego's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of San Diego's last 5.
- San Diego kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 0 of their last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- San Diego W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 San Diego
7Context
San Diego
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
San Jose Earthquakes
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego · Referee: A. Da Silva
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Our model makes San Diego the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
- Will both teams score in San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- San Diego's reported absences and doubts include dos Santos CJ, S. Vines, A. Mighten, Gabriel Pirani and 10 others. San Jose Earthquakes's include R. Vieira, P. Judd, T. Werner, D. Johnson and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- San Diego line up in a 4-3-3, San Jose Earthquakes in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.