Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Chicago FirevInter Miami
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–32.0–2.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–2 (7%), then 1-1 (7%), 1-2 (7%). Chicago Fire and Inter Miami finish on some other score 78% of the time. We show 1–3 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Chi / Int | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chicago Fire down the side and Inter Miami across. These 96.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Inter Miami41% · Match result
- Over 1.588% · Goals
- Yes66% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Inter Miami the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Chicago Fire the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Chicago Fire a 43% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 23% draw · 33% away
Now: 43% home · 22% draw · 35% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Inter Miami
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chicago Fire
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- R. Lod — out (International duty)
- A. Saletros — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Bamba — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- S. Oregel — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- C. Mueller — out (Inactive)
- L. Barroso — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- H. Cuypers — out (Head Injury)
- V. Radojevic — doubtful (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Knee Injury)
Inter Miami
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- T. Segovia — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Fray — out (Injury)
- G. Berterame — out (International duty)
- M. Silvetti — out (Injury)
- S. Morales — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lujan — out (Leg Injury)
- R. de Paul — out (Rest)
- S. Reguilon — out (Injury)
- M. Falcon — out (Calf Injury)
- D. Ayala — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Allende — out (Knee Injury)
- D. St.Clair — out (International duty)
- D. Pinter — out (International duty)
- M. Galarza — out (International duty)
- L. Delinois — out (International duty)
- F. Caicedo — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Chicago FireDDDWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Toronto FC 4–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–2(xG 2.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Portland Timbers 2–1
Inter MiamiDWLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atlanta United FC 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v CF Montreal 7–1(xG 3.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Toronto FC 1–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Philadelphia Union 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Nashville SC 1–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chicago Fire have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chicago Fire's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chicago Fire's last 5.
- Chicago Fire kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Inter Miami have won 1 of their last 5.
- Inter Miami have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Inter Miami's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Inter Miami's last 5.
- Inter Miami kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Chicago Fire W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Inter Miami 3–2 Chicago Fire
7Context
Chicago Fire
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Inter Miami
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Soldier Field, Chicago · Referee: J. Marrufo
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
- Our model makes Inter Miami the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Chicago Fire at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 66% chance, against 34% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
- Chicago Fire's reported absences and doubts include R. Lod, A. Saletros, J. Bamba, S. Oregel and 5 others. Inter Miami's include T. Segovia, I. Fray, G. Berterame, M. Silvetti and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
- Chicago Fire line up in a 4-3-3, Inter Miami in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.