Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Minnesota United FCvFC Dallas
Minnesota United FC
FC Dallas·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Min / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Minnesota United FC down the side and FC Dallas across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Minnesota United FC44% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Minnesota United FC the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Minnesota United FC a 50% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 24% draw · 25% away
Now: 50% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Minnesota United FC
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Minnesota United FC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Triantis — out (International duty)
- J. Pereyra — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Harvey — out (International duty)
- M. Boxall — out (Yellow Cards)
- B. Hlongwane — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Stroud — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodriguez — out (International duty)
- A. Smir — out (International duty)
FC Dallas
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Ramiro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Musa — out (International duty)
- B. Kamungo — out (International duty)
- O. Urhoghide — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. A. Julio Santos — out (Injury)
- Geovane Jesus — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Binyamin — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Minnesota United FCLDWLD
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Portland Timbers 4–5
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Orlando City SC 3–3(xG 3.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Jose Earthquakes 5–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Atlanta United FC 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Real Salt Lake 1–1
FC DallasWDLWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Sporting Kansas City 4–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v St. Louis City 3–3(xG 1.0–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–5
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Real Salt Lake 4–3
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Austin 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Minnesota United FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Minnesota United FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Minnesota United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Minnesota United FC's last 5.
- Minnesota United FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Dallas have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Dallas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Dallas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Dallas's last 5.
- FC Dallas kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Minnesota United FC W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- FC Dallas 0–1 Minnesota United FC
7Context
Minnesota United FC
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Dallas
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Allianz Field, Saint Paul · Referee: R. Fierro
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas?
- Our model makes Minnesota United FC the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas?
- Minnesota United FC's reported absences and doubts include N. Triantis, J. Pereyra, C. Harvey, M. Boxall and 4 others. FC Dallas's include Ramiro, P. Musa, B. Kamungo, O. Urhoghide and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas?
- Minnesota United FC line up in a 4-4-2, FC Dallas in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.