Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Vancouver WhitecapsvLos Angeles Galaxy
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles Galaxy·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–12.5–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (9%), then 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%). Vancouver Whitecaps and Los Angeles Galaxy finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 3–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Van / Los | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vancouver Whitecaps down the side and Los Angeles Galaxy across. These 95.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 4.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Vancouver Whitecaps69% · Match result
- Over 1.584% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely of the three results, at 69% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 80%). Most likely is not likely: at 69% this result does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 74%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 74% chance. Our model makes it 69%.
2Market
Open: 76% home · 15% draw · 9% away
Now: 74% home · 16% draw · 10% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Vancouver Whitecaps
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vancouver Whitecaps
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- C. Sabaly — out (Illness)
- R. Priso — out (International duty)
- E. Ocampo — out (International duty)
- M. Gherasimencov — out (International duty)
- A. Cubas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Badwal — out (Injury)
- T. Muller — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Berhalter — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Veselinovic — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Poku — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — out (Foot Injury)
- E. Sabbi — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Adekugbe — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Schonlau — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Halbouni — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Elloumi — out (International duty)
- Y. Diaby — out (International duty)
Los Angeles Galaxy
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- S. Roberto — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Paintsil — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Cerrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Glesnes — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sanabria — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Garces — out (Red Card)
- E. Wynder — out (Injury)
- E. Thommy — out (Injury)
- Matheus Nascimento — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Rindov — out (Leg Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Vancouver WhitecapsLWWLW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v St. Louis City 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sporting Kansas City 3–0(xG 3.0–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Dallas 5–0
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 0–1
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–0
Los Angeles GalaxyWLDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v New England Revolution 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v San Diego 1–3(xG 0.8–2.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v CF Montreal 2–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Houston Dynamo 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 2 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Vancouver Whitecaps W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
7Context
Vancouver Whitecaps
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Los Angeles Galaxy
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
BC Place · Referee: P. Lauziere
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely result at 69%. Most likely is not likely — at 69% it does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 74%.
- Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Vancouver Whitecaps's reported absences and doubts include C. Sabaly, R. Priso, E. Ocampo, M. Gherasimencov and 13 others. Los Angeles Galaxy's include S. Roberto, J. Paintsil, E. Cerrillo, J. Glesnes and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- Vancouver Whitecaps line up in a 4-2-3-1, Los Angeles Galaxy in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.