Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Houston DynamovReal Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo
Real Salt Lake·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hou / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Houston Dynamo down the side and Real Salt Lake across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Houston Dynamo48% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Houston Dynamo the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Houston Dynamo a 49% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 55% home · 24% draw · 21% away
Now: 49% home · 25% draw · 26% away
Moved −6pp — the market moved away from Houston Dynamo
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Houston Dynamo
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- A. Resch — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- Felipe Andrade — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Saracchi — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Lucas Halter — out (Yellow Cards)
- Antonio Carlos — out (Knee Injury)
- E. Sviatchenko — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Quinones — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Maurer — out (Concussion)
- M. Arana — out (International duty)
Real Salt Lake
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- D. Zagar — out (Inactive)
- J. Sanabria — out (International duty)
- L. Moisa — out (International duty)
- S. Lobjanidze — out (International duty)
- A. Katranis — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Luna — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Engel — out (Hamstring Injury)
- J. J. Arias — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Guilavogui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Hezarkhani — out (Toe Injury)
- Z. Booth — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Yedlin — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Henry — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Houston DynamoDDLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Charlotte 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v St. Louis City 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0
Real Salt LakeDLLLD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Los Angeles FC 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1(xG 0.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v FC Dallas 3–4
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Minnesota United FC 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Houston Dynamo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Houston Dynamo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Houston Dynamo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Houston Dynamo's last 5.
- Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Real Salt Lake have won 0 of their last 5.
- Real Salt Lake have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Salt Lake's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Salt Lake's last 5.
- Real Salt Lake kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Houston Dynamo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Real Salt Lake 3–0 Houston Dynamo
7Context
Houston Dynamo
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Real Salt Lake
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Shell Energy Stadium, Houston · Referee: R. Touchan
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
- Our model makes Houston Dynamo the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
- Houston Dynamo's reported absences and doubts include A. Resch, L. Foster, Felipe Andrade, M. Saracchi and 6 others. Real Salt Lake's include D. Zagar, J. Sanabria, L. Moisa, S. Lobjanidze and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
- Houston Dynamo line up in a 5-3-2, Real Salt Lake in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.